As the United States Navy maintains its blockade of Iranian ports, questions are emerging about the potential duration of the standoff between Iran and Washington over the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint that once facilitated the free flow of approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, as highlighted in Priyanka Shankar’s recent analysis published in Al Jazeera.
The US naval blockade began on April 13, 2026. Since then, American forces have fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged tanker near the strait and redirected ships in international waters carrying cargo to or from Iran. Tehran has responded by closing the Strait of Hormuz to all foreign shipping and capturing several foreign-flagged vessels, calling the American actions "an act of piracy." Iran's parliamentary speaker and lead ceasefire negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has stated that a full ceasefire is only possible if the blockade is lifted.
President Donald Trump claimed on his Truth Social platform this week that Iran is "collapsing financially" and "losing 500 million dollars a day," with military and police going unpaid. Analysts, however, paint a more complicated picture.
Iran earned significantly more from oil exports in the weeks following the outbreak of the US-Israel war on February 28 than it did before. According to trade intelligence firm Kpler, Iran exported 1.84 million barrels per day (bpd) in March and 1.71 million bpd so far in April, at prices rarely falling below $90 a barrel. By conservative estimates, Tehran earned at least $4.97 billion from oil over the past month — roughly 40 percent more than its pre-war monthly average, as reported by Al Jazeera.
Iran also has a significant oil buffer. Kenneth Katzman, a former Iran analyst at the Congressional Research Service, told Al Jazeera that Iran has between 160 and 170 million barrels of oil already "afloat" on ships worldwide — supplies that transited the strait before the blockade and are waiting for delivery. Based on those reserves, Katzman said an Iranian academic informed him that Tehran could maintain revenue flows until August. "Which is a long time. Does President Trump have until August? Probably not," Katzman said.
Frederic Schneider, a nonresident senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera that Iran appears to be "playing the longer game." While the blockade has added economic strain and several civilian vessels have been seized, it remains unclear how airtight the blockade actually is, given the large volume of Iranian oil already at sea.
The US faces its own mounting pressures. Schneider noted that Trump will hit a legislative wall around May 1, when the 60-day window for conducting a foreign offensive without congressional approval expires. Difficult conditions aboard the vessels maintaining the blockade have also been reported. Perhaps most significantly, China — a major buyer of Iranian crude — has declared the blockade of its trade with Iran "unacceptable," raising the diplomatic stakes ahead of a possible Trump-Xi meeting.
Former US Ambassador to Bahrain Adam Ereli told Al Jazeera that while the blockade policy "makes sense" in theory, domestic political constraints may undermine it. "The Iranians have prepared for this. They have their own plans. They've got alternative means of storing their oil or selling their oil," Ereli said, adding that Iran's ability to endure hardship could well "outlast Trump's patience and the patience of the American people."
Iran is also generating revenue through a toll system imposed on the strait since March. Deputy parliament speaker Hamidreza Haji-Babaei confirmed this week that Iran's central bank has already received its first toll payments, with some vessels reportedly paying as much as $2 million each to pass, according to Al Jazeera.
On the military front, Iran has shown resilience through asymmetric tactics — guerrilla operations, cyberattacks, proxy support, and the mining of the strait. Iranian officials have remained publicly united, with President Masoud Pezeshkian, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and First Vice President Mohammad Reza Aref all dismissing US claims of internal division. "We are all Iranians and revolutionaries," Pezeshkian wrote on X. "With ironclad unity of nation and state, we will make the aggressor regret."
For now, the standoff is a test of economic endurance, political will, and global patience — and according to most analysts cited by Al Jazeera, Iran may be better positioned than Washington to wait it out.
Map: Al Jazeera