Yagur argues that the fundamental flaw in the Western approach to the conflict lies in its almost exclusive focus on the military domain. Washington, he writes, operates under the assumption that stripping Iran of its military capabilities will force the regime into submission. Israel, until recently, held a similar logic in Gaza and Lebanon, measuring success through strikes on senior figures and weapons depots.
Iran, by contrast, has abandoned any pretense of military parity from the outset. The regime, Yagur contends, has accepted its military inferiority and is willing to absorb military losses in exchange for dominance in the arena where it has chosen to compete: the battle for perception and survival. For Tehran, simply continuing to function — firing missiles, maintaining street presence, blocking the internet — constitutes a form of victory.
The regime's central strategic tool, according to Yagur, is its control over the Strait of Hormuz, combined with the threat of destabilizing Gulf states, Washington's key regional partners. Surrendering Hormuz, even in exchange for a ceasefire, would leave Iran exposed to renewed strikes with no remaining leverage — a risk the regime refuses to take.
Yagur does not dismiss Iran's vulnerabilities. He notes that the Basij suppression forces may be suffering from poor discipline and absenteeism, that essential goods including medicines are reportedly in short supply, and that Israel has systematically struck the full chain of Iran's military production, as well as key civilian industrial assets — including the Mobarakeh Steel Company and an estimated 85% of Iran's petrochemical industry.
Yet without a functioning internet, Yagur argues, cracking the regime's domestic image remains nearly impossible. He calls for an immediate campaign in the civil and informational space: deploying Starlink transmitters to restore Iranian internet access, publicly dismantling the judiciary — the Revolutionary Guards' primary instrument of domestic repression — and launching a Persian-language information campaign directed at the Iranian population.
"Whoever wants to defeat the regime in Iran," Yagur concludes, "must fight on the same battlefield Iran has chosen."