Support for Israel’s war with Iran is still a majority position, but it is weakening fast. What began as a burst of public rallying behind the campaign has quickly given way to fatigue, doubt, and a growing sense that the war’s goals may not be achievable.
As underlined by Dahlia Scheindlin in the Haaretz, in the first days of the fighting, optimism was high: many Israelis believed the campaign could inflict major damage on Iran’s nuclear, missile, and political infrastructure. But by the end of the first month, that confidence had eroded sharply. According to the Institute for National Security Studies, the share of Israelis who thought Iran’s regime would be significantly harmed fell from 69 percent at the start of the war to 43.5 percent, while support for continuing the war until the regime is overthrown dropped to 45.5 percent.
The public’s mood is being shaped by the daily reality of the war. Repeated missile alerts, shelter runs, and the strain of living under constant threat are wearing people down. As Scheindlin argues, this is simply “no way to live,” and the longer the war drags on, the more Israelis appear to believe that the promised strategic breakthrough is slipping away.
That erosion of faith also helps explain why Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not received the political boost many expected. Polling shows that trust in the government remains low, and Netanyahu’s personal standing has not improved in any meaningful way. INSS found that only 36 percent of Israelis expressed high or moderate trust in him in the fourth week of the war, with 62 percent reporting low trust.
The pattern is politically important because it suggests the Iran war is not yet transforming Israel’s election map. For now, the conflict has not generated a clear wartime rally around Netanyahu or his coalition. But if the war ends quickly, his supporters may still claim vindication; if it drags on, public disappointment could deepen and shape the next election more dramatically than the initial surge of support ever did