With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut after a month of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Washington is no longer pretending the war is about "regime change." The real prize, argues Turkish foreign policy writer Zeynep Gürcanlı in her column in Turkish news site Ekonomim, is rerouting Gulf oil away from vulnerable chokepoints and toward the Mediterranean — a shift that makes a long-frozen Cyprus settlement suddenly urgent.
Gürcanlı writes that after one month of war, Hormuz — previously the free highway for Gulf crude — is largely closed. She cites Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf's bitter summary: the enemy that claimed to have destroyed Iran's air force, navy and missiles now says its operational goal is to "open Hormuz," though the strait was open before the war started.
Tehran's response, according to the column, is to turn the strait into a toll road. A draft law to charge for passage has already cleared the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, a sign, Gürcanlı notes, of political will in Tehran even if full parliamentary and Guardian Council approval is still pending.
Meanwhile, President Trump is signaling a US exit. Gürcanlı points to his recent White House remarks and social media posts saying the Iran war will end in "two to three weeks" and that America will "leave Iran very soon." Trump told reporters: "If France or another country wants oil or gas, they will go through Hormuz and fend for themselves. We have nothing to do with it." In a post aimed at the UK, which refused to join the operation, he added: "Buy from the US, we have plenty. Or show some belated courage, go to the strait and take it."
For Gürcanlı, this fits Trump's repeated line that "allies must shoulder their own sea lanes," especially in Europe. Washington's message is blunt: secure the route politically and militarily yourselves, or pay for alternative supply chains.
Israel's Plan: Make the Gulf dependent on the Med
The core of the US-Israeli design, the column argues, was laid out by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. First floated at the UN General Assembly in 2023 and revived in a press conference two weeks ago, the project would pipe Gulf energy through Saudi Arabia to the Mediterranean.
What looked like a technical pipeline is now, after the Iran war, a political architecture, Gürcanlı writes. The aim is to create a new Gulf-Mediterranean interdependence in which Arab producers need Israel to reach global markets, positioning Israel as the terminal hub of a new Eastern Mediterranean energy system.
The only counterweight, in Gürcanlı's reading, is Turkey. Gulf oil and gas could also travel overland through Syria and Turkey to the Mediterranean and onward to Europe.
Countries like Saudi Arabia, unwilling to enter such a deep economic embrace with Israel, may lean toward the Turkish route, she suggests. That would avoid making Israel the region's "economic and political boss," but it keeps Ankara in direct competition with Tel Aviv for transit revenues and strategic leverage.
Why Cyprus Becomes Critical
This is where Cyprus enters as the main theme. Gürcanlı is explicit: "Kıbrıs da çözülürse plan tamamlanır" — if the plan is completed, Cyprus will also be solved.
If Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb are sidelined and energy is marketed via the Mediterranean, no major power will tolerate instability around Cyprus, she argues. The island sits astride the very terminals, LNG routes and undersea cables that would carry Gulf crude to Europe.
Therefore, a Cyprus settlement — "one way or another" — is likely to return to the agenda in the medium term, not for its own sake but as a security requirement for the new energy corridor. Gürcanlı warns that Ankara will face intense pressure for a solution, and must advance a plan that protects both Turkey and Turkish Cypriots. Otherwise, she writes, "it is clear that Turkey's influence over Cyprus will be replaced by Israel's control."
Israel's Domestic Shift to the Far Right
The column also links the external project to internal Israeli politics. On the night of March 30, the Knesset passed both the budget and a death penalty law with the same 62 votes. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir made his support for the budget conditional on passing the execution law, which targets those who cause an Israeli's death "with racist motives or hostility toward a community" — a formulation widely seen as aimed at Palestinians.
Netanyahu, facing the collapse of his government if the budget failed, bowed to what Gürcanlı calls "political blackmail." The vote, she argues, shows far-right figures are no longer just agenda-setters but are shaping the future leadership of the Israeli right.
Next move: A US-brokered Israel-Turkey Thaw?
Gürcanlı concludes that Washington's ultimate goal is to lock down Middle East "chaos" and, in the process, limit China's access to secure energy. That requires "full stability" on the new routes, which in turn requires its two most reliable regional allies — Israel and Turkey — to work together.
After any ceasefire in Iran, the Trump administration is likely to push for an Ankara-Tel Aviv rapprochement, she predicts, with momentum building after Israel's general election expected in the autumn.