Pakistan talks collapse without agreement as divisions within the US delegation and Israeli intransigence cast a long shadow over diplomacy
Even as the guns fall silent, the path to a settlement over Iran looks increasingly impassable. That is the sobering assessment of Zeynep Gürcanlı, writing in the Turkish current affairs outlet Ekonomim, who argues that even if hostilities do not resume, "an outcome satisfying everyone is nearly impossible."
The ceasefire between the United States and Iran has largely halted the military escalation that had gripped the Middle East, but the high-level diplomatic talks launched in Pakistan — aimed at a permanent resolution — collapsed in their first round without agreement. US Vice President JD Vance, who led the American delegation, departed before the talks had run twenty-four hours, declaring on his way out that Iran "had more to lose than the United States" from the failure to reach a deal.
Whether Vance's abrupt exit was a negotiating gambit or a genuine breakdown remains unclear, Gürcanlı reports. Iranian delegation sources signalled that the talks would continue, noting that no one expected peace from a single session. But the structural divisions inside the American team may prove the more telling obstacle.
The US delegation in Islamabad included Vance alongside special envoy Steve Witkoff and presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner — figures whose visions of an acceptable deal diverge sharply. Kushner is said to favour a framework permitting Iran to maintain civilian nuclear enrichment under strict international monitoring; Vance, by contrast, holds to a "zero enrichment" line. For Tehran, this meant sitting across from an American position that shifted depending on which interlocutor was speaking.
On the Iranian side, a broad and fully authorised delegation arrived in Pakistan projecting institutional continuity — a deliberate signal, Gürcanlı observes, that the clerical system has survived the war as a functioning state, despite the deaths of senior religious, military and bureaucratic figures in US and Israeli strikes.
Complicating the diplomatic picture further is Israel's continued military operations in Lebanon, which risk reigniting the proxy dimension of the Iran-Israel confrontation through Hezbollah. Israel's government, Gürcanlı writes, shows no clear willingness to accept an outcome in which the Islamic Republic survives in any form — and the signals from Tel Aviv suggest that factions pushing for the continuation of war are, for now, in the ascendant.
Iran, for its part, has arrived at the table with a demanding set of conditions: control over Strait of Hormuz transit arrangements, freedom to continue its nuclear enrichment programme, the release of frozen assets, the lifting of all sanctions, and war reparations. Even partial acceptance of these terms could allow the clerical regime to declare a form of political victory and embark on rapid reconstruction — though Gürcanlı cautions that this scenario carries its own dangers. A regime that frames itself as having emerged from the war stronger could move to reactivate its regional proxy networks and refine its missile capabilities on the basis of wartime experience.
The humanitarian and economic cost of renewed conflict, meanwhile, would extend far beyond Iran. Regional energy exports have already been severely disrupted: according to Yedi Düvel, Kuwait has cut petroleum exports by 75 percent, Qatar by 70 percent, Iraq by 82 percent, Saudi Arabia by 34 percent, and the United Arab Emirates by 26 percent. Oman — which offered its services as a mediator and was spared Iranian missile strikes — is the only country in the region to have increased its energy exports during the crisis.
Beyond the region, the war has accelerated a broader geopolitical reorientation. France is leading a move across EU institutions to replace American-centred operating systems with European alternatives, as Western governments seek to reduce technological and economic dependence on Washington. The outcome of Hungary's upcoming elections — and whether Viktor Orbán retains the premiership — will shape how far Europe's political detachment from the United States ultimately goes.
The stakes of the Pakistan process, Gürcanlı concludes, cannot be reduced to a diplomatic transaction. Whatever emerges from the negotiating table — or fails to — will define the security architecture of the Middle East for years to come. "The Iran-US negotiating process cannot be viewed simply as a diplomatic bargain," she writes. "Every possible outcome will determine how the coming years take shape in the region."