According to Izvestia, the USS George H.W. Bush carrier strike group is already en route to the Persian Gulf region, along with the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer carrying US Marines — a deployment the paper notes is proceeding regardless of the ceasefire. Once in position, the American naval air component in the region would exceed 200 carrier-based strike aircraft, Izvestia reports.
The Russian outlet quotes military analyst Yuri Knutov as saying that Washington has so far failed to achieve its core strategic objectives: the Iranian government remains in place, the country has not been partitioned, and both its missile and nuclear programmes are still functioning. "From a military-political standpoint, Iran is currently in the winning position," Knutov is quoted as telling Izvestia.
The ceasefire itself was already characterised as "fragile" on April 8 by US Vice President JD Vance, and Izvestia notes that it came under immediate strain following reported strikes on an oil refinery on Iran's Lavan Island and in Khuzestan province. Iranian authorities, the paper reports, have since threatened to withdraw from the ceasefire entirely if Israeli operations in Lebanon continue, and have again moved to restrict navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.
Citing analyst Yuri Lyamin, Izvestia argues that the fundamental causes of the conflict — Iran's missile and nuclear programmes — remain unresolved, making a resumption of hostilities highly probable once the 14-day window expires. Lyamin suggests the US may have agreed to the ceasefire under pressure from regional actors such as Qatar, which fears being drawn into a wider war. "In 14 days we will most likely return to a deadlock, with both military machines ready for a new round," Lyamin is quoted as saying.
On the Iranian side, Izvestia reports that analyst Dmitry Kornev believes Tehran likely still holds substantial missile and drone stockpiles in underground facilities that were sealed — but not necessarily destroyed — by American strikes. Iranian forces would use the ceasefire period to clear access to those underground depots, redistribute munitions, and restore combat readiness. The paper also reports that Iran is expected to seek emergency supplies of man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS), potentially sourcing them from China or via African countries with limited ties to the West.
For its part, Izvestia says the US military would spend the two weeks resupplying warships and submarines with cruise missiles and air defence interceptors — noting reported shortages of Patriot and THAAD ammunition — and repositioning ground forces including artillery brigades, potentially staging them in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Bahrain.