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US-Iran Ceasefire Announced as Missile Barrages Continue; Lebanon Status Contested

A dramatic overnight agreement between Washington and Tehran has produced a fragile two-week ceasefire in the six-week-old US-Israel war on Iran, brokered through Pakistani mediation, even as missile exchanges continued across the region hours after the announcement and a bitter dispute erupted over whether Lebanon is included in the deal.

US President Donald Trump announced the agreement late Tuesday, describing it as a "total and complete victory" and declaring it "a big day for world peace." Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued its own triumphalist statement, claiming the enemy had suffered "an undeniable, historic and crushing defeat" and that Washington had been compelled to accept Tehran's 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations. Both sides, in other words, claimed to have won.

The Ten-Point Framework

At the heart of the agreement is Iran's 10-point ceasefire proposal, submitted to the US side through Pakistani intermediaries. According to Iranian state media and the SNSC statement, the plan includes controlled transit through the Strait of Hormuz under coordination with Iranian armed forces, an end to hostilities against all components of the "Resistance Axis" — meaning Hezbollah, Iraqi factions, and the Houthis — a full US military withdrawal from regional bases, the lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions, payment of compensation to Iran, release of frozen Iranian assets, and codification of all terms in a binding UN Security Council resolution. Iranian officials also claimed the plan includes US acceptance of Iran's uranium enrichment programme, previously a hard American red line.

Trump acknowledged receiving the proposal, calling it a "workable basis" for negotiations and vowing not to attack Iran over the coming two weeks. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, however, struck a more cautious tone, saying the truth was that Trump had "got Iran to agree to reopening the Strait of Hormuz" and that negotiations would continue. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, confirmed safe passage through the Strait would be permitted for two weeks under Iranian military management.
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who played a central mediation role, announced the ceasefire publicly and invited both delegations to Islamabad for talks beginning Friday, 10 April. The Trump administration has yet to formally accept the invitation.

Missiles After the Ceasefire

The ceasefire's credibility was immediately tested. More than an hour after Trump's announcement, Iranian missiles struck across southern, central, and northern Israel, triggering sirens in Tel Aviv, Haifa, and the Jerusalem area. Magen David Adom reported multiple shrapnel impact sites. Gulf states — Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE — activated air defences almost simultaneously. Bahrain confirmed an Iranian missile caused a fire on its territory, though without casualties. Iran's supreme leader subsequently ordered all military units to cease fire, with IRIB broadcasting a statement that this did not signify the war's end.

The Lebanon Dispute

The sharpest point of contention to emerge from the ceasefire announcement is the status of Lebanon. Sharif declared the ceasefire covered "everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY." Iranian state media echoed this, stating that ending hostilities against all resistance components — explicitly including Hezbollah — was part of the framework. Israel rejected this categorically. Netanyahu's office said the deal "does not include Lebanon" and that Israeli military operations there would continue. The IDF subsequently struck targets across southern Lebanon, including a car in the coastal city of Sidon that killed eight people and wounded 22, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry, and carried out drone strikes in Qana and al-Qaleileh. Lebanon's Crisis Management Unit urged displaced residents not to return south, even as highways choked with traffic as over a million displaced people attempted to make their way home.

Israel: Sidelined and Alarmed

Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid was scathing. "There has never been such a political disaster in all of our history," he said, arguing that Israel was not at the table when decisions affecting its core national security were made. Netanyahu's office, meanwhile, carefully framed Israel's endorsement as conditional — supporting Trump's decision provided Iran immediately opens the Strait and halts attacks on the US, Israel, and regional states.

Global Reaction and Economic Fallout

International reaction was broadly welcoming. The UK's Keir Starmer, who travelled to the Gulf on Wednesday, called the ceasefire "a moment of relief to the region and the world." Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Iraq, and Egypt all issued positive statements, though Australia's Anthony Albanese issued a rare rebuke of Trump's pre-ceasefire language threatening to destroy Iranian civilisation, calling it "extraordinary" and inconsistent with international law.

Markets responded sharply. European natural gas prices fell approximately 20% on news of the tentative Hormuz reopening. Asian equity markets surged, with Japan's Nikkei gaining 4.8% and South Korea's Kospi rising 5.6%. Analysts cautioned, however, that a normalisation of energy flows would take considerably longer. Willie Walsh, director general of IATA, warned that jet fuel supply disruptions to Middle Eastern refining capacity could take months to resolve. Energy analysts noted that shipping owners would likely remain cautious about re-entering the Gulf until a more durable ceasefire was in place.

Negotiations in Islamabad

Both sides have signalled the two-week window is intended to finalise what Iran characterises as a political confirmation of its battlefield gains. Iranian state media was explicit that the Islamabad talks do not constitute the end of the war, and the SNSC statement warned that Iran's "hands remain on the trigger" and any misstep by the enemy will be met with full force. The Trump administration described the arrangement differently, with the White House framing it as an opportunity for "a definitive agreement concerning long-term peace."

The ceasefire, at the time of writing, remained conditional, contested in its geographic scope, and unverified on the ground — a thin diplomatic membrane stretched over an extremely volatile situation.