"Zero Enrichment, No-Strike Guarantee": Vance Leads U.S. Team to Islamabad as Iran Holds Firm on Hormuz
The meeting follows two weeks of quiet between the U.S. and Iran that Pakistan helped broker, but it was nearly derailed this week by Israel's heavy strikes in Lebanon. After Tehran signaled it might pull out, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced he had ordered direct negotiations with Lebanon, a move an Israeli source described not as a ceasefire but as a cutback in attacks to allow diplomacy to proceed.
Who Will be at the Table
Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif invited both sides to the capital and will host. The U.S. delegation will be led by Vice President JD Vance, with President Donald Trump's key aides Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Iran will be represented by Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
It is the third U.S.-Iran negotiation in the past year, and officials on both sides acknowledge trust is thin. In public comments Friday in Washington, Vance said, "The Israelis have actually offered to check themselves a little bit in Lebanon, because they want to make sure that our negotiation [with Iran] is successful."
Islamabad Locks Down for Talks
Pakistan declared a two-day public holiday for Thursday and Friday and placed the capital's Red Zone under army control. Police, Rangers, and quick-response units are deployed at government buildings, the diplomatic enclave, and all entry points.
Security sources said a U.S. Air Force C-130 carrying an advance team landed at Nur Khan Air Base on Thursday, followed by U.S. Secret Service and CIA personnel to secure the venue, a five-star hotel inside the Red Zone. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi met U.S. Ambassador Natalie Baker to review plans, and Sharif held a separate meeting with Chief of Defense Staff Field Marshal Asim Munir on the ceasefire arrangements.
Lebanon Fighting Clouds the Agenda
The White House backed Israel on Wednesday when spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said Benjamin Netanyahu was correct that Lebanon was not part of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, a position that contradicted earlier statements by Shehbaz Sharif.
International criticism of the Lebanon strikes was sharp. France said Lebanese authorities reported at least 250 killed and 800 wounded, a very high percentage civilians, and called the strikes unacceptable because they jeopardize the temporary U.S.-Iran truce. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said that even though Hezbollah dragged Lebanon into the war, Israel's right to defend itself does not give it the right to sow such widespread death and destruction.
Despite talk of convergence, officials and analysts briefed on the drafts say the gaps are wide. Donald Trump has issued contradictory signals, at times citing a 10-point Iranian document, at times a 15-point American one, and later claiming the version circulating in U.S. media was not the one Tehran submitted. Abbas Araghchi wrote on X that Washington had agreed to use Iran's document but also wanted its own as a basis.
The Core Disputes Break Down Across Five Issues
- Nuclear program: Iran demands recognition of its right to enrich uranium inside Iran. The United States insists on zero enrichment on Iranian soil and the removal of highly enriched uranium stockpiles buried under bombed facilities.
- Missiles: Tehran says it could accept a range limit in principle, but not one that would put Israel or the Gulf states out of reach. Washington wants significant, verifiable cuts to Iran's ballistic missile program.
- Strait of Hormuz: Iran seeks continued control over the strait and the ability to charge transit fees. The United States holds that Hormuz is an international waterway that must remain open with free passage.
- Sanctions: Iran wants full removal of all U.S. and international sanctions, plus compensation for war damage. The United States offers sanctions relief only if tied to compliance, with no compensation.
- Regional security: Tehran wants a formal no-strike guarantee from the United States and Israel, a ceasefire on all fronts including Lebanon, and a withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Middle East. Washington demands an end to Iranian support for regional proxies, refuses to withdraw forces, and will not give a blanket no-strike pledge.
A source involved in the talks noted sarcastically that Iran could easily promise not to aid proxies because it has never admitted doing so. Senior researcher Danny Citrinowicz at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies added there is no technical way to enforce a missile-range cap, and he sees almost no chance Tehran would accept one that puts Israel out of range.
Donald Trump has also signaled openness to lifting sanctions and even allowing Iran to collect Hormuz transit fees, an idea that would violate international law treating the strait as international waters and would face strong opposition across the Gulf.
Analysts say Iran's maximalist items, such as compensation and a full U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East, are bargaining chips designed to be conceded. Tehran's red lines on enrichment and Hormuz, and Washington's insistence on zero enrichment and proxy disengagement, have not moved since pre-war negotiations.
With both delegations arriving under heavy guard, the Islamabad round will test whether American pressure on Israel to restrain operations in Lebanon is enough to keep Iran at the table, and whether either capital is prepared to soften the positions that have sunk the last two attempts.