Iran on Sunday rejected the latest American diplomatic proposal to end the war, despite sustaining severe economic damage and facing a vast military imbalance with the United States. Harel writes that Tehran's continued defiance stems directly from Trump's pattern of issuing bold warnings only to return to the negotiating table empty-handed — a pattern that has convinced Iranian leaders they hold the strategic upper hand.
The standoff now centers on the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed to international shipping. Tehran is demanding an end to hostilities, guaranteed maritime passage for its own interests, the lifting of international sanctions, and a binding commitment that neither the U.S. nor Israel will strike Iran again — before it will even discuss restraints on its nuclear program. According to U.S. media reports cited by Harel, Iran has also shown far less flexibility on the nuclear file than previously suggested, offering only to remove a portion of its enriched uranium stockpile while refusing to dismantle nuclear infrastructure.
Trump faces a compounding timeline. He is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this week, and the United States is set to host the FIFA World Cup in one month — both events the president views as priorities that limit his appetite for military escalation.
The strategic damage is being catalogued beyond Israeli media. In a widely read piece in The Atlantic, neoconservative historian Robert Kagan described the situation as "a checkmate" for the United States — "a setback so decisive that the strategic loss could be neither repaired nor ignored." Kagan argues that 37 days of intensive American and Israeli airstrikes failed to collapse the Iranian regime or extract a single meaningful concession, and that Iran's grip on Hormuz has transformed it into a decisive regional and global power while weakening U.S. credibility.
The war's ripple effects are also being felt in Lebanon. IDF ground forces in southern Lebanon remain in defensive positions, suffering daily drone attacks from Hezbollah. A reservist was killed by a drone on Sunday; three more soldiers were wounded on Monday. Harel notes that Israel's retaliatory airstrikes have been geographically limited, reportedly due to American pressure, and that fiber-optic drone technology used by Hezbollah has yet to be countered effectively.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — facing elections — has been focused on shaping the political narrative rather than military strategy. In an interview with CBS' 60 Minutes on Sunday, Netanyahu sidestepped questions about his responsibility for failures preceding the October 7 massacre, saying only, "Everybody bears some responsibility," while deflecting to his post-October 7 record. Harel writes that this question is set to dominate the coming election campaign.