A fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran is teetering on the edge of collapse, with Iran's military openly warning that a resumption of hostilities is probable and Washington showing no sign of retreating from its maximalist demands. Nearly four weeks after the two sides reached a shaky truce brokered by Pakistan, diplomacy has stalled, the Strait of Hormuz remains functionally blocked, and both powers are simultaneously negotiating and preparing for renewed combat.
A War That May Not Stay Frozen
Iran's military headquarters issued its starkest assessment yet on Saturday. As stated by Al Jazeera's correspondent reporting from Tehran, the Iranian military said the resumption of war is "likely as evidence shows the US is not committed" to any agreement or treaty. A senior officer at the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Command echoed that view, telling BBC Persian that renewed conflict is "probable" and that Iran's armed forces are "fully prepared for any new adventures or foolishness from the Americans." The same official dismissed recent US public statements as media theatre designed to stabilize oil prices and manage a crisis of Washington's own making.
That assessment is shared, from a different vantage point, by Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz, who warned earlier this week that Israel may resume its military strikes on Iran imminently, according to Sky News Arabia. The war, which began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched airstrikes targeting Iran's military, government sites, and senior leadership, has formally been in a ceasefire phase since April 8 — but violations have mounted on both sides since then.
Trump Declares War "Over" — Then Warns It Isn't
President Donald Trump sent Congress a formal notification on Friday declaring that hostilities with Iran "have terminated," a move timed to the expiration of the 60-day clock imposed by the 1973 War Powers Resolution. As reported by BBC Persian, Trump told congressional leaders that fighting that began on February 28 has ended. Yet in the same breath, as stated by Sky News Arabia, he insisted the United States would not disengage from its confrontation with Tehran prematurely, warning that doing so could mean "facing the same problem a few years from now."
Democratic lawmakers and legal experts have sharply contested the administration's legal manoeuvring. As reported by Al Jazeera, constitutional law expert Bruce Fein stated the War Powers Resolution "never says anywhere" that the 60-day deadline stops during a ceasefire, warning that the White House's interpretation "turns the resolution into simply a paper tiger." A Senate vote to curb Trump's military authority under the Resolution failed 50-47, largely along party lines.
Talks at a Dead End
Iran submitted a new peace proposal via Pakistan on Friday, but Trump swiftly rejected it, saying Iran was asking for things he "can't agree to," according to Al Jazeera. The core gap is wide: Washington demands a complete end to Iran's nuclear enrichment and the permanent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Tehran insists those questions cannot even be approached until the US naval blockade is lifted and sanctions relief is on the table. As stated by Al Jazeera's correspondent in Tehran, Iranians believe they showed considerable flexibility in pre-war negotiations and during the Islamabad talks, while the Americans became progressively more demanding with each Iranian concession.
Mohamad Elmasry of the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies told Al Jazeera the deadlock stems partly from a US miscalculation: Washington appears to believe Iran is "almost ready to surrender" and "on the verge of an oil storage crisis," when in fact Tehran believes it can hold out for some time. Iran is reportedly pushing for a limited short-term agreement first, deliberately deferring the nuclear file — a negotiation that, as Elmasry noted, took years to produce the 2015 JCPOA. "It's not something that can come together in just a few hours or just a few days," he said.
As reported by CNN, Iran's nuclear program remains a critical red line for both sides, with the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei — who has not appeared publicly in more than seven weeks since being announced following his father's assassination — issuing a written statement vowing that Iran would "safeguard" its nuclear and missile capabilities and that foreign actors have no place in the Persian Gulf.
Military Preparations and Escalation Signals
Behind the diplomatic noise, both sides are openly preparing for a return to fighting. Sky News Arabia reported that US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Brad Cooper and Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Cain briefed Trump on Thursday for 45 minutes on new military plans for possible action against Iran, with options ranging from targeted strikes to scenarios involving control of the Strait of Hormuz and a forced dismantlement of Iran's remaining nuclear infrastructure. Washington is also reportedly preparing to deploy the "Dark Eagle" hypersonic missile to the Middle East, a weapon capable of striking deep inside Iranian territory.
Iran, for its part, confirmed this week through a parliamentary security committee member that enemy drones entered Iranian airspace on Thursday night — what Tehran described as a reconnaissance effort to probe air defence gaps. Iran's air defences responded, and the parliamentarian called for a retaliatory offensive strike. Separately, Iran executed two men — Yaqoub Karimpour and Nasser Bekarzadeh — convicted of spying for Israel's Mossad during the war, as confirmed by both Al Jazeera and Iran International.
Economic Devastation — and Broader Fallout
The human and economic cost of the conflict is mounting on multiple fronts. Iran is now entering its 64th consecutive day of near-total internet shutdown, as confirmed by the watchdog NetBlocks and reported across Al Jazeera, BBC Persian, and Iran International. The isolation has devastated Iran's economy: Tehran's Donya-e-Eqtesad newspaper reported that more than one million jobs have been lost, job postings have dropped by 80 percent compared to the previous year, and over 150,000 people have registered for unemployment insurance. The US dollar hit 183,000 Iranian tomans in the open market on Saturday, Iran International reported — a new record.
The Pentagon estimates the US naval blockade has already cost Iran $4.8 billion in losses, according to Sky News Arabia, citing an Axios report. Iran's main oil export hub on Kharg Island is approaching full storage capacity with no buyers able to reach it. The US Treasury has warned shipping companies that even paying tolls for Strait of Hormuz passage — something Iran has floated as part of a deal — would trigger sanctions, even if framed as charitable payments.
The war's knock-on effects are global. Spirit Airlines, a US low-cost carrier, ceased operations this week, with soaring jet fuel costs — driven by oil prices surpassing $100 a barrel since the conflict began — cited as the decisive blow, as reported by both Al Jazeera and BBC Persian. The Financial Times reported that the war has delayed US arms deliveries to European allies including Britain, Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia. Germany announced the withdrawal of 5,000 US troops from its soil is "foreseeable," as stated by Defence Minister Boris Pistorius according to Al Jazeera, while Chancellor Friedrich Merz accused Iran of "humiliating" the United States during negotiations.
Lebanon and the Shadow War
Lebanon offers a preview of what a resumption of wider conflict might look like. Despite a nominal ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah that took effect in mid-April, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Beirut described it bluntly as "a diplomatic construct" — the reality in southern Lebanon, he said, is that "the war continues, and in fact it is expanding." Israel issued forced evacuation orders for nine villages in the Nabatieh district this week, with Israeli military operations pushing deeper into Lebanese territory. At least 12 people were killed in Friday's strikes alone, according to Sky News Arabia.
Outlook
With Iran's military declaring war resumption "likely," US military chiefs briefing Trump on strike options, drone incursions probing Iranian air defences, and a peace proposal already rejected before the ink dried, the ceasefire has the character of a pause rather than a peace. Both sides are locked in a logic of brinkmanship: Iran cannot accept what it sees as a demand for surrender; Washington cannot accept anything that leaves Iran's nuclear programme intact. Unless mediators in Islamabad find a formula that neither side has yet been willing to accept, the guns are likely to speak again.