Writing in Haaretz, military analyst Amos Harel warns that while U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to signal clear intentions on renewing hostilities with Iran, Israel is behaving as though a new military campaign is all but inevitable. Both the Israeli government and military are hinting through statements and actions that they are actively preparing for a renewed round of U.S.-led strikes against Tehran.
Trump's talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing yielded no visible results on the Iran file. Washington had reportedly hoped to trade concessions to Beijing over Taiwan pressure in exchange for Chinese diplomatic intervention in the Persian Gulf crisis — but no progress was made. The diplomatic deadlock leaves Israel in a strategic limbo, caught between an indecisive Washington and a rapidly recovering adversary.
Iran's Nuclear and Missile Programs Largely Intact
A damning assessment from Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman, executive director of Tel Aviv's Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) and a former senior Military Intelligence officer, reveals that the June 2025 campaign — dubbed "Operation Roaring Lion" — failed to deliver a decisive blow. In a policy paper published Sunday on the INSS website, Hayman concluded that "despite tactical achievements, the campaign's two main centers of gravity — the Iranian regime and the nuclear project — remain essentially unchanged".
Hayman specifically cited the rehabilitation of the Fordow nuclear site and the accelerated construction of "Pickaxe Mountain," a deep underground facility near Natanz allegedly immune to airstrikes. Iran also continued producing ballistic missiles at a rate of approximately 125 per month, accumulating 2,500 missiles before the current phase of war began.
Hayman argues that the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei — who replaced his assassinated father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — is more extreme and is not bound by the late leader's religious decree prohibiting nuclear weapons. "Iran has endured two major wars within a single year, and its leadership's likely conclusion is that only nuclear deterrence can prevent the next war," Hayman writes. He urged Israel's defense establishment to assume that Iran already operates a covert nuclear weapons program.
Lebanon Front Remains Volatile; IDF Manpower Crisis Deepens
Despite a U.S.-announced 45-day ceasefire extension in Lebanon, fighting between Israel and Hezbollah continues. In the past two weeks alone, seven Israeli soldiers and civilians were killed along the Lebanon border, with dozens more wounded, mostly in drone strikes. Hayman's paper also notes that Iran rapidly rebuilt Hezbollah's capabilities after the 2025 campaign, doubling the organization's budget and restoring supply routes through Syria despite the collapse of the Assad regime.
Compounding Israel's strategic challenges, the IDF is facing a shortage of approximately 12,000 mandatory service soldiers, more than half in combat units. The gap between military needs and the government's political constraints — particularly Netanyahu's reluctance to enforce ultra-Orthodox conscription — has never been more pronounced.
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