Israel’s internal political scene has entered a familiar but increasingly unstable phase: one in which the government still stands, but almost every signal points toward an election campaign already underway. The coalition remains in power for now, yet the balance in the Knesset, the pressure from coalition partners, and the rise of new opposition alignments are all pushing Israeli politics toward another decisive test at the ballot box.
The current tension is driven by two parallel realities. On one hand, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to govern with the backing of his right-wing and religious allies. On the other, the political system is showing signs of deadlock, with no bloc clearly on track to secure a comfortable parliamentary majority if elections are held now. That makes the coming months crucial, not just for Netanyahu’s coalition survival, but for the broader question of who will shape Israel’s next government.
The prospect of early elections cannot be ruled out, but the more likely baseline is a vote by October 2026, when the current political cycle runs its course. Even so, Israel’s political calendar has often been overtaken by coalition crises, and this one is no exception. The government’s approval of the 2026 state budget helped reduce the immediate danger of collapse, but it did not resolve the deeper fractures inside the coalition. The most sensitive issue remains the long-running dispute over military conscription, especially the demands and resistance involving ultra-Orthodox parties. That issue has repeatedly threatened to destabilize Netanyahu’s parliamentary majority.
At the same time, the opposition is reorganizing in ways that could make the next election more competitive than many expected. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett has emerged as one of the strongest challengers, and his newly forged political arrangement with Yair Lapid has given the anti-Netanyahu camp a more coherent center. Gadi Eisenkot has also become a factor in the contest for the premiership, further complicating the picture. The result is a political field that is no longer defined simply by “Netanyahu versus everyone else,” but by a more structured race for the right to assemble a future coalition.
Recent polling suggests that Netanyahu is vulnerable, though far from finished. One survey reported in February showed the Netanyahu-led bloc at 50 seats, while the opposition bloc plus Bennett and Eisenkot reached 60, just one seat short of a majority. In the same poll, Netanyahu was essentially tied with Bennett in a head-to-head question on who is better suited to serve as prime minister. A later poll in late April showed Bennett’s slate overtaking Likud by a narrow margin, underscoring the extent to which Netanyahu’s political dominance has been challenged by a credible alternative.
Still, Netanyahu retains important advantages. He remains the central figure around whom the right-wing camp organizes, and his long experience in political crisis management gives him a path to survive even without a clear majority. If the next election produces another hung Knesset, he could still try to hold power through coalition bargaining, interim governance, or a renewed alliance with the same bloc that has kept him in office. His prospects therefore depend not only on polling numbers, but on the willingness of his allies to stay disciplined and on the opposition’s ability to convert anti-Netanyahu sentiment into a workable governing coalition.
The bigger question now is whether Israeli politics is approaching a true change of era or simply another round of its long-running instability. The answer will depend on whether the anti-Netanyahu forces can stay united, whether the coalition survives its internal strains, and whether Netanyahu can once again turn fragmentation into political survival. For now, the trend lines point to an increasingly competitive race, a fragile governing structure, and an election that could reshape the country’s political future.
Caricature: Perplexity