Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu views the emerging US-Iran agreement as a disaster and holds President Donald Trump responsible for it, a senior political source told Ben Caspit of Al-Monitor. With the Tehran regime still in power and a possible accord taking shape, members of Netanyahu's circle warn that Israel's longest-serving leader could pay the ultimate political price as elections approach.
The prospect of a deal has fueled speculation that Netanyahu may be forced to step down to avoid losing the upcoming vote and risking prison over his corruption indictment. “This time, the prime minister's hands are tied. He is completely paralyzed and knows that he will not be able to do anything,” one associate told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, adding that Netanyahu now longs for the days of Presidents Joe Biden and even Barack Obama. “Now, all he can do is salute Trump.”
Since Trump announced an April 8 ceasefire with Tehran, opponents have rejected Netanyahu's claims that Iran was defeated. Opposition leader Yair Lapid accused him of failing to shape the terms of the agreement, telling reporters in Jerusalem, “The deal is bad for Israel, bad for the region and bad for the citizens of Iran.”
Elections are scheduled for September or October. Although Netanyahu is not known for quitting, the associate said a damaging accord could push him toward a plea bargain to end the corruption trial he has faced since May 2020 — a possibility raised again when President Isaac Herzog invited the prime minister and prosecutors to discuss an agreement on April 28. Trump's pressure on Herzog has so far failed to produce a pardon, and with little time left to advance legislation shielding him from conviction, a plea deal may be Netanyahu's last viable option.
A Missed Chance to Topple Tehran
Netanyahu's inner circle also faults Trump for abandoning what security officials describe as a realistic opportunity to bring down the Iranian regime with the help of the country's Kurdish minority. Fox News reported on March 3 that thousands of armed Kurdish fighters planned to cross from Iraq into Iran under US and Israeli air cover. Days later, Trump said he opposed the move: “They're willing to go in, but I've told them I don't want them to go in. The war is complicated enough as it is.”
A senior Israeli intelligence source told Al-Monitor the plan was “comprehensive and detailed,” insisting it “was not a gimmick.” He said the Kurds were eager to act alongside the Israeli air force and American power, “but Washington hit the brakes at the last minute.” The source attributed the reversal to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's influence over Trump, lamenting, “Who knows when or if such an opportunity will arise again.” He added that Trump repeatedly blocked other operational initiatives Israel had developed, warning the consequences “could be disastrous and long-term.”
Another security official argued regime change remains achievable: “Eighty percent of the Iranian people aspire to get rid of the regime and live in a freer country. It can still be done with patience and proper conduct.” But he warned that a deal funneling billions of dollars back to Tehran would destroy those prospects.
Hormuz and the Question of Power
The intelligence source also flagged the danger of Iran gaining de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, calling the waterway a weapon “perhaps even more valuable than nuclear arms.” Israeli officials expect any agreement Trump signs would extend the ceasefire through a memorandum of understanding without fully addressing Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium or its future nuclear capabilities. Adding to the uncertainty, the source questioned who truly governs in Tehran: “The question is whether [Supreme Leader] Mojtaba Khamenei is managing events or being managed by others. At the moment, we do not have a definitive answer.”