European energy markets face mounting pressure as crude oil prices surge from $102 to $112 per barrel following President Donald Trump's threats against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. With gas storage already running 35% below the five-year average, Europe has turned to Algeria, Africa's third-largest oil reserve holder and a producer of approximately 1.2 million barrels per day.
Algeria exported 39.2 billion cubic meters of gas to the European Union in 2024, representing roughly 14-15% of the bloc's total imports and making it Europe's fourth-largest supplier behind Norway, Russia, and the United States. The dependence is particularly acute for Spain, where Algerian gas accounted for more than 29% of imports in January and February, prompting Madrid to pursue talks about expanding Medgaz pipeline capacity by up to 10%.
Italy has also deepened its reliance on Algerian energy, with Algeria already supplying 30% of Italy's gas needs. Both countries are negotiating expanded volumes and new upstream projects as Europe seeks alternatives to Persian Gulf supplies.
Morocco Emerges as Europe's Logistics Hub
While Algeria leverages its energy reserves, Morocco is capitalizing on the maritime disruption caused by the Hormuz closure and renewed Red Sea threats from Iran-backed Houthi forces. Tanger Med, Morocco's flagship industrial port complex, handled 10.24 million TEUs and 142 million tonnes of cargo in 2024, establishing itself as one of the Mediterranean's leading container hubs.
EU-Morocco trade exceeded €60 billion in 2024, marking a 7% increase from 2023, with the EU absorbing roughly two-thirds of Moroccan exports. Brussels designated Morocco a "crucial trading partner" in April 2025, reflecting the kingdom's growing importance to European supply chains. Nearly 540,000 finished cars shipped from Tanger Med to Europe in 2024, a volume expected to climb as shipping companies like Maersk continue avoiding the Red Sea.
Rivalry Deepens With Strategic Stakes
The parallel rise of both nations intensifies their decades-old rivalry, most visibly demonstrated when Algeria halted natural gas exports via the Maghreb-Europe pipeline through Moroccan territory in 2021 amid tensions over Western Sahara. Algeria's decision to weaponize infrastructure illustrates the political risks inherent in Europe's deepening dependence on North African partners.
For European investors, the Iran crisis presents both opportunity and risk. Algeria's gas leverage enables Algiers to restrict supply as easily as it expands it, while Morocco's supply chain integration, though real, remains maturing. The continent increasingly requires both Algeria's energy molecules and Morocco's logistics capabilities, with each dependency carrying distinct geopolitical costs as the realignment of European trade and energy relationships accelerates.
Photo: Al Jazeera