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As the United States and Iran remain locked in an escalating military standoff, one country appears to be reaping significant strategic and economic rewards: Russia. That is the assessment of Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, who spoke with Foreign Policy editor in chief Ravi Agrawal in an interview published May 11.
The most immediate benefit for Moscow is financial. According to Gabuev, every $10 rise in crude oil prices per barrel translates into approximately $100 million in additional monthly revenue for the Russian state and its energy companies combined. Citing calculations by his Carnegie colleague Sergey Vakulenko, Gabuev noted that Russia earned $9 billion from oil sales in April alone — double its pre-invasion oil revenues. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has kept crude prices elevated, effectively functioning as a massive subsidy for Putin's war economy.
But the windfall extends beyond oil. Gabuev identified three distinct advantages Russia is gaining from the Iran conflict. First, the spike in commodity prices — including fertilizers and aluminum — is boosting Russian export revenues across the board. Second, the U.S.-led coalition's heavy use of Patriot interceptor missiles in the Gulf is depleting the very stockpiles that Ukraine depends on to defend against Russian ballistic missile strikes. "Imagine if we go into a winter season, and Russians manage to build a big stash of ballistic missiles and unload them against Ukrainian infrastructure," Gabuev warned in the interview. "That will be trouble."
Third, Washington's attention is increasingly consumed by the Middle East, diverting focus from Ukraine. Gabuev noted that the Trump administration had begun implementing tougher sanctions on Russian oil companies — a potentially significant lever — but that momentum has stalled. "We could have seen more of that had they not been dealing with the war," he said.
Russia is also actively supporting Iran, though Gabuev described the assistance as limited in scope. Intelligence sharing and drone components are being transferred through the Caspian Sea, he said, while Iran is receiving Russian wheat via the same route. The arrangement reflects Moscow's strategic calculus: Iran provides Shahed drone technology and serves as a tool to tie down American resources that might otherwise flow to Ukraine.
There is, however, one silver lining for Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has moved swiftly to capitalize on Gulf states' urgent need for anti-drone expertise. Ukraine, hardened by three years of Shahed attacks, is now training Gulf militaries and exploring joint defense ventures with wealthy regional investors — a potential boost for Ukraine's defense industry, according to Gabuev.
On the broader state of the war, Gabuev pushed back against optimistic assessments of Ukrainian battlefield gains. Russia continues to hold numerical superiority in men, tanks, artillery, and missiles, and is still advancing — albeit at high cost. "The point where the war turns into negative returns for the Kremlin is probably already there," Gabuev told Agrawal, "but the caveat is: Does Putin get the message?"
Russia's muted Victory Day parade last weekend, held under threat of Ukrainian drone strikes and requiring a last-minute guarantee from President Donald Trump, illustrated the mounting vulnerabilities Putin now faces at home — even as he profits abroad.
Illustration: Perplexity