Dong Lei, described by SCMP as "an independent observer of Chinese politics and history, with a particular interest in China's evolving role in global affairs," argues that foreign affairs are never disconnected episodes but a test of whether nations learn from history. He opens with a sobering catalogue of failures — Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Iran's destabilising role in the Middle East, and the collapse of Libya and Afghanistan — as evidence of what happens when that test is failed.
The piece acknowledges China's remarkable trajectory. Its rise has lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty, reshaped global trade, and cemented the country's position as a manufacturing and innovation hub. Yet Dong warns that Beijing's sharp focus on Taiwan risks narrowing its broader strategic vision at a critical moment. "China still depends on the global trading system," he writes, "and that system requires stability — stability that requires accommodation with the US, however pushy Washington may seem."
The Iran Question
On Iran, Dong Lei draws a clear red line. While Beijing has thus far resisted actively aiding Tehran, it has nonetheless vetoed a UN Security Council resolution aimed at securing the Strait of Hormuz and pushed back against U.S. sanctions on Chinese refineries purchasing Iranian oil. The author argues that any deeper entanglement with Iran would undermine China's credibility as a responsible global actor — and contradict the very model of development that defines its success. "The world needs China to be a constructive power, not a spoiler," Dong states, warning that siding with "those who thrive on chaos" would ultimately erode China's own prosperity.
Taiwan and the Road to Stability
On Taiwan, the piece urges both sides to protect the fragile peace maintained since the 1972 Shanghai Communique. Dong acknowledges Beijing's perspective on Taiwan as understandable, but insists that missteps or grandstanding risk a confrontation neither side can afford. The U.S., he argues, must also do its part — crafting a China policy that goes beyond hostility and acknowledges China's real contributions to the global system.
Significance for the Middle East Crisis
The piece carries direct implications for the ongoing crisis in the Middle East. With the Strait of Hormuz blockaded and energy markets in turmoil, Beijing's decision on how to engage with Tehran may prove as consequential as any outcome of the Trump-Xi summit itself. Dong Lei implicitly frames China's leverage over Iran not as a weapon to be hoarded, but as a responsibility to be exercised. If Beijing uses the summit to push for the reopening of the strait and restraint by Iran, it would enhance its standing as a global stabiliser. If it continues to shield Tehran at the UN and prop up Iranian oil revenues, it risks being seen as a co-author of the region's chaos — and jeopardising the very trading system that underpins its rise. The choice, as Dong puts it plainly, is between stabiliser and spoiler.
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