Senior Iranian and US officials acknowledged on Monday that progress has been made toward ending the three-month-old war, but both sides publicly cautioned that a final agreement is not imminent. Washington frames the current phase as one of "significant progress," while Iranian negotiators insist that no deal can be finalized under what Tehran calls conditions of ongoing military threat.
Strikes Undercut Diplomatic Signals
The credibility of the talks has been strained by the continuation of US military operations. American forces carried out fresh "self-defense" strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and mine-laying vessels in southern Iran even as Iranian negotiators were meeting Qatar's prime minister in Doha. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) responded by threatening "decisive reciprocal" action against what it described as ceasefire violations, deepening uncertainty around the diplomatic track.
Concurrent Israeli strikes — particularly against Hezbollah in Lebanon — have further eroded Iranian confidence, with Tehran pointing to them as evidence of US "bad faith and unreliability" at the negotiating table. Washington insists it will exhaust all diplomatic options, but publicly keeps military pressure on the table.
A Multi-Phase Framework Takes Shape
Despite the charged atmosphere, the outlines of a deal are emerging. Talks in Doha centered on three interlocking tracks: reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the war including in Lebanon, and reaching a time-bound agreement on Iran's nuclear program.
Under reported draft proposals, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz approximately 30 days after a ceasefire agreement, followed by a 30-day mine-clearing period to restore safe passage for international shipping. In exchange, the US would end its naval blockade of Iranian ports and ease key sanctions, including restrictions on Iranian oil sales.
On the nuclear file, proposals call for Iran to freeze uranium enrichment for between 10 and 20 years and to export nearly 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium, reportedly with the Supreme Leader's approval in principle. Iran has signaled willingness to transfer the material to the IAEA, but has firmly rejected transferring it directly to the United States. In return, Washington would lift sanctions and unfreeze billions in Iranian assets, with Iran's central bank governor already engaged in technical sequencing discussions.
Rubio Warns, Tehran Pushes Back
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated that Washington would "find another way" if diplomacy fails, framing any deal as necessarily superior to the 2015 JCPOA. President Trump, who claimed over the weekend that a deal was "largely negotiated," subsequently directed his team "not to rush," saying "time is on our side" and pledging to maintain the US naval presence in the Strait of Hormuz until a deal is "finalized, verified, and executed".
Iranian officials have not matched Trump's optimism. Tehran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei described any current text as a preliminary "framework" MoU, stressing that detailed provisions — especially on the nuclear file — remain unresolved. Iran has also refused to discuss ballistic missiles or its regional militia networks, framing these as non-negotiable matters of sovereignty.
Qatar Mediates, Geneva Anchors Nuclear Track
Qatar is playing a pivotal mediating role in the current phase, with Iran's chief negotiator and foreign minister meeting Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani in Doha to relay positions to Washington. Geneva remains the dedicated venue for nuclear-focused indirect talks, with ongoing rounds described by participants as the most intensive yet.
Oman is involved in technical discussions over Hormuz transit protocols, and regional states including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt are cited in the broader diplomatic framework outlined by Trump. US delegations are also expected in Pakistan and other locations as part of a wider regional push to consolidate a war-ending package.
Domestic Pressures on Both Sides
Analysts warn that domestic political constraints may prove as difficult to navigate as the negotiating table itself. In Washington, the administration must square its public posture of strength with the concessions required to deliver sanctions relief and formally end the war — all under Congressional scrutiny. In Tehran, negotiators face pressure from conservative factions, a public weary of both war and economic collapse, and the bitter legacy of the failed 2015 nuclear deal.
The role of Israel remains among the most explosive unresolved variables. Israeli operations against Hezbollah and Iran-aligned forces in Lebanon and Syria directly complicate any bilateral US-Iran arrangement, and Washington has not publicly committed to restraining its ally as part of the emerging framework.