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The article, titled "As the Iran File Closes, Where Will Israel Open a New Front?", begins with a sobering question: "War again? Perhaps war, perhaps a power struggle." Bostan notes that although the United States and Iran have reached an understanding, the dossier remains far from closed. Lebanon continues to bleed, and the uncertainty surrounding the nuclear talks creates fertile ground for further Israeli maneuvering.
A significant portion of Bostan's analysis focuses on the impact of the Iran conflict on Turkey's domestic security agenda, specifically the "Terror-Free Turkey" process aimed at disarming the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). He describes the Iran attack as the second major shock to this process, following the integration of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDG) into Damascus. PKK leader Murat Karayılan reportedly justified the organization's decision to retain arms by stating, "With missiles flying everywhere, our only guarantee is our weapons." Nevertheless, Bostan suggests the process has weathered the storm with only minor delays, though he stresses the need for urgency amid regional instability.
The columnist also sheds light on behind-the-scenes dynamics in Washington, revealing that U.S. intelligence is reportedly preparing to blame Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the failure of operations in Iran. According to Bostan, Israeli efforts to persuade former President Donald Trump to arm and incite Kurdish groups against Tehran were rebuffed, with Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and CIA officials allegedly dismissing the proposal as "not feasible" and an "Israeli exaggeration." The journalist cites an upcoming book by New York Times reporters Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, which reportedly contains recordings from the White House Situation Room exposing these divisions.
Bostan contends that Israel launched the war primarily to eliminate the possibility of a Palestinian state. With the Gaza Peace Council sidelined by the shift in focus to Iran, he urges regional actors to redirect attention back to Gaza and Lebanon. He calls for international support of Hezbollah's disarmament negotiations with the Lebanese government and warns against leaving Lebanon at Israel's mercy as the UNIFIL mandate expires. Turkey, he suggests, has been in contact with Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Qatar regarding a new international military presence focused on Lebanese security.
The article further highlights emerging regional alignments that exclude Israel, including a Saudi Arabia-Turkey railway project designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Israeli media has already framed this development as evidence of Israel's marginalization from regional projects, a characterization Bostan deems not entirely unfounded. He predicts similar shifts in energy corridors, with Iraqi, Syrian, and Gulf resources increasingly routed through Turkey to global markets.
Looking ahead, Bostan warns that Israel will likely grow more aggressive. He identifies the Horn of Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean as potential new crisis zones, pointing to the recent visit of Somaliland regional president Muse Bihi Abdi to Israel and a recent coup attempt in Somalia as interconnected developments. He also notes that Cyprus and Greece have aligned themselves with Netanyahu's agenda, raising the specter of renewed tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean.
In conclusion, Bostan emphasizes that declaring "everything is over" would be premature. The coming weeks, he argues, will require careful analysis of both opportunities and threats as the region's geopolitical map is redrawn—with or without Israel at the table.