Kanlı: “The Key to a Cyprus Settlement Is for Turkey to Enjoy the Same Cyprus-Related Rights as Greece”
Veteran journalist Yusuf Kanlı, a long-time observer of the Cyprus issue and Ankara’s foreign policy thinking, has offered a series of striking assessments on the latest phase of the Cyprus negotiations. Speaking exclusively to The Levant Files, Kanlı outlined what he sees as the principal obstacles facing the process while also presenting a broader vision that, in his view, could pave the way for lasting peace in the Eastern Mediterranean.
“President Erdoğan’s Remarks Were Routine and Entirely Predictable”
Commenting on the recent diplomatic activity surrounding the initiative of UN Secretary-General António Guterres, Kanlı argued that President Nikos Christodoulides’ claim that Ankara had given a “green light” to renewed talks was overstated. In his view, it amounted to little more than Christodoulides’ own interpretation of events.
Referring to the March 12 meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Guterres, Kanlı summarized Turkey’s position as follows:
“The question put to the President was how Turkey would respond if a new diplomatic effort were launched. Erdoğan replied that he wanted a settlement on the island, that Turkey had always wanted a settlement, and that Turkey would support any new initiative undertaken by the Secretary-General. But this was not a statement implying concessions or a ‘whatever you wish’ approach. It was a standard, routine statement.”
Kanlı noted that while Erdoğan did not explicitly use the phrase “political equality,” his reference to a settlement “based on the political sovereignty of the parties” was a significant nuance. He argued that Ankara’s evolving position largely overlaps with the four proposals advanced by Tufan Erhürman, adding that he has detected signs of coordination between Ankara and the opposition in northern Cyprus.
“Erdoğan spoke about the need for any new initiative not to be open-ended,” Kanlı said. “While not identical, this approach largely reflects Erhürman’s four proposals. Although sources within the Foreign Ministry continue to advocate a two-state solution—which suggests there is a degree of divergence within the Turkish side—the Presidency appears to be pursuing a pragmatic settlement on the island.”
“If the Greek Cypriot Side Resorts to Delay Tactics, There Will Be Consequences”
According to Kanlı, Ankara’s clearest expectation in any renewed negotiating process is the existence of a “Plan B” should the Greek Cypriot side once again engage in delaying tactics.
He suggested that, if negotiations were to collapse, steps could be taken to clarify the status of the Turkish Cypriots. Referring to the “3D” formula championed by Ersin Tatar—Direct Trade, Direct Flights and Direct Contacts—and also supported by Erhürman, Kanlı stated:
“The Presidency believes that if the other side once again finds a way to kick the ball into touch, there should be a price to pay. Even if formal recognition does not materialize, the existence of the TRNC should be acknowledged, making direct trade, transportation and contacts possible.”
Kanlı also attached particular significance to the recent meeting between Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and his Greek counterpart Giorgos Gerapetritis, arguing that it represented far more than routine diplomatic engagement.
He stressed that issues such as the modernization of Turkey’s Customs Union with the European Union, visa liberalization and participation in European programmes cannot be separated from the Cyprus question. He proposed a broader regional accommodation:
“Greece cannot do anything in Cyprus without Turkey, and Turkey cannot do anything in Cyprus without Greece. Anyone who claims otherwise is not telling the truth. I believe we will eventually see something akin to the Abraham Accords in the Eastern Mediterranean and in Greek-Turkish relations. This issue cannot be resolved without redefining relations between the European Union and Turkey.”
Confusion in Ankara and Internal Frictions in Northern Cyprus
Kanlı also addressed tensions between Foreign Minister Tahsin Ertuğruloğlu and President Tufan Erhürman, arguing that the dispute reflects divisions among different factions within Turkey’s governing coalition.
He contended that Ertuğruloğlu could not be making such forceful public interventions on his own:
“The views and conduct voiced by Mr. Ertuğruloğlu reflect those of one wing of the coalition in Ankara. In no democracy would a foreign minister openly contradict and challenge the president day after day. Yet if the prime minister accepts it and Ankara tolerates it, then there must be other calculations at play. I see this as an attempt to keep an unwelcome president under control.”
Kanlı further suggested that the possibility of the CTP coming to power following the upcoming elections has created anxiety in certain circles in both Nicosia and Ankara, particularly regarding activities that have long remained hidden from public scrutiny.
“A Loose Confederation Would Be the Ideal Model for Cyprus”
Asked about his preferred settlement model, Kanlı offered a clear and unequivocal answer. He argued that both sides’ sovereignty claims should be preserved while a loose confederal structure representing a single international legal personality should be established.
“This has always been my core thesis. Without undermining either side’s sovereignty claims and while preserving their authority over their respective territories, a loose confederal structure that symbolizes unity abroad and within the European Union would be ideal for Cyprus. It would be a uniquely Cypriot solution. But first we must find a way to reach that point. The Greek Cypriot side needs to take one step back from acting as if it alone owns the island.”
Kanlı expressed pessimism about the prospects for the negotiations, particularly in light of the approaching presidential election campaign in the Republic of Cyprus.
“I am wondering when Christodoulides will kick the ball into touch. The Turkish side will not do that. Christodoulides will, because the presidential election process is beginning and domestic political considerations will inevitably come into play. Of course he will.”
Touching on Turkey’s own domestic political turbulence, Kanlı concluded with a brief but stark assessment of the country’s political climate:
“Domestic turmoil always affects foreign policy. We are moving ever further from authoritarianism toward totalitarianism. But this is Turkey. Perhaps another phoenix will emerge from its ashes.”