In an analysis published on June 15, in the Lebanese newspaper Al Joumhouria, Lebanese journalist Johnny Mounir examined the complex maneuvering surrounding the emerging US-Iran agreement, highlighting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's conspicuous silence after Washington, Tehran, and Islamabad announced they had reached a deal to end the current state of war.
According to Mounir, Israeli media described Netanyahu as shocked and sidelined by the announcement. Yet after Hezbollah was targeted by drones in northern Israel, it appeared Netanyahu was waiting for an opening—possibly using the two-drone "attack" as the pretext he needed to respond and reverse the equation Washington had recently established between Beirut's southern suburb and northern Israel.
The analysis draws a historical parallel: when warring powers move toward settlements, a different kind of conflict often begins internally, using local tools. Mounir points to signs of this within Iran, where unusual protests erupted in Tehran against negotiators, including Foreign Minister Adnan Araqchi and delegation head Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf. The traditional reformist-conservative divide, he argues, has shifted into a split between those supporting the agreement and those opposing it. Opponents believe Iran still holds powerful cards—particularly the Strait of Hormuz—and that time favors Tehran over an internally squeezed White House facing declining global oil reserves.
Mounir notes that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly leans toward proceeding with the agreement. The supporting camp, including figures around Qalibaf, argues that wisdom requires halting the internal bleeding caused by widespread destruction to Iran's economy and treasury.
The central question, Mounir writes, is which Iran emerges after this agreement. Washington is betting Tehran will prioritize reconstruction, recovering frozen funds, and easing sanctions over regional confrontation—shifting from military influence to less costly political and security management. The Iranian ambassador to Mexico reportedly told Politico that Tehran and Washington could become close friends if the US disregards Israeli interests.
Israeli calculations differ sharply. While Washington seeks to tame Tehran, Tel Aviv wants to dismantle the Iranian regime. A Channel 12 poll showed nearly half of Israelis believe deterrence toward Iran has declined, explaining Netanyahu's insistence on an immediate response.
For Lebanon, Mounir concludes, a signed agreement would mean strict monitoring and a "land for weapons" path aimed at disarming Hezbollah in exchange for Israeli withdrawal. But if Netanyahu and the Revolutionary Guard succeed in torpedoing the deal, southern Lebanon will pay a heavy geographic, demographic, and economic price.