Turkey’s opposition crisis may be edging toward a dramatic political reconfiguration, with the elected but court-ousted leadership of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) preparing a fallback party structure that, according to exclusive information reaching The Levant Files from Ankara, could have the potential to attract as much as 30 percent of the vote in its first electoral appearance.
While no formal split has yet been declared, the prospect of a new political vehicle around CHP leader Özgür Özel is no longer confined to Ankara rumor. Özel himself has publicly acknowledged that his team is working on a “Plan B” in case the CHP is prevented from contesting elections amid the party’s escalating legal and institutional crisis.
The turmoil was triggered when a Turkish court annulled CHP’s 2023 congress, the internal vote that had brought Özel to the leadership after ending Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s long tenure. The ruling effectively reopened the battle for control of Turkey’s main opposition force and raised fears within Özel’s camp that the party could be trapped in a legal deadlock severe enough to jeopardize its electoral eligibility.
Against that backdrop, the new-party option is being framed not as a conventional breakaway but as an emergency political safeguard. The calculation inside the elected CHP camp is that if the party is blocked from entering elections because of court-driven paralysis, the opposition electorate must still have a vehicle capable of carrying the political legitimacy of the current leadership.
Two dates have become central to the discussion. The first is 20 July, linked to the judicial calendar and expectations that key legal steps may need to be taken before the summer recess. The second is **26 July**, a date Özel has referenced publicly in relation to CHP’s ability to complete the procedures needed to preserve its position as an electoral contender.
No official name has been announced for the potential new formation, but Turkish media reports have pointed to İstiklal Partisi (“Independence Party”) as one of the names under discussion. Reports of a prepared party headquarters remain unconfirmed, with some accounts suggesting that what exists for now is a reserve organizational structure rather than a fully launched political machine.
Still, the significance of the Ankara assessment lies in its scale. According to information obtained by The Levant Files, figures close to the process believe that a party built around Özel and the elected CHP leadership could have the potential to reach the 30 percent threshold in its first outing if voters come to see it not as a splinter formation, but as the legitimate continuation of the opposition mandate overturned by the courts.
That figure should be treated as a political projection rather than verified polling. But it underscores the stakes of the current struggle. The fight inside CHP is no longer simply about who controls party headquarters in Ankara. It is increasingly about whether Turkey’s largest opposition bloc can preserve its electoral identity — and its ability to challenge President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s dominance — under mounting judicial and political pressure.