RIA Novosti, David Narmania
For two months, Washington and Tehran conducted ceasefire negotiations — only for Donald Trump to tear up the effort three weeks after the memorandum was signed. Iran says the agreement has effectively collapsed and that the Americans have resumed the war. What comes next is the subject of this report.
Exchange of Strikes
Since 8 July, the United States has struck Iran almost daily. The official pretext was Iranian action against commercial vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz. Overnight into Wednesday, 15 July, air strikes continued for seven hours, and by that afternoon US Central Command had announced a new wave of bombing, beginning at 13:00 Moscow time.
According to CENTCOM's statement, the goal is to degrade Tehran's military capacity in the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the strikes have hit cities in the south of the country and along the Persian Gulf coast. According to Hossein Kermanpour, spokesman for Iran's Ministry of Health, the number of people injured in American strikes had reached 280 by 15 July, including three women and six people under the age of eighteen. Official figures put the death toll at 17.
Iran, for its part, has responded with strikes on American facilities in several Middle Eastern countries. Overnight into Wednesday, Tehran reported hitting US bases in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
"As part of the fourth wave of Operation Nasr-2, the main US Army logistics hub in Mina Abdullah, Kuwait, was set ablaze," the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced.
"We Will Be Fair"
The US president said he has no intention of halting strikes on Iran for now, adding that force is the only way to reach an agreement.
"They [the strikes] will continue until I say 'enough,'" he stressed.
Trump warned that if the Iranian delegation does not return to the negotiating table, "all power plants and bridges" in the country will be destroyed.
The realism of that scenario is questionable, however. Even after the far more extensive month-and-a-half bombing campaign the US ran in March–April, Iran — according to media reports citing US intelligence — managed to preserve roughly 70 percent of its missile arsenal. Meanwhile, both Washington's strike capacity and its air-defense missile stockpiles have been substantially depleted. Experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) have warned that while there is no acute shortage yet, a new war would risk putting Washington in serious difficulty, and that replenishing stockpiles could take years.
None of this has deterred the White House. The renewed fighting appears driven above all by Washington's desire to control the Strait of Hormuz — reportedly one of the most contentious issues in the negotiations, according to Western media.
On Monday, the US president said the United States would become the "guardian of the Strait of Hormuz" and was therefore entitled to collect 20 percent of the value of cargo transported through it. He revised that position the very next day.
"Given extremely productive talks with leaders in the Middle East, I have decided to replace the fee with trade and investment deals that various Gulf states will conclude with the United States," he wrote on Truth Social.
Iran mocked the statement. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote: "The US president is absolutely right. Whoever ensures the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz should be compensated for that service. Iran has always been, and will remain, the guardian of the strait. But 20 percent is certainly excessive. We will be fair."
Tehran, however, says the American strikes themselves nullify the settlement document signed in June.
"The memorandum no longer exists in practice. The enemy [the US] has effectively declared war on us by violating the articles... of the memorandum, reimposing sanctions, imposing a blockade [in the Strait of Hormuz], and violating the arrangements on Lebanon," said Ebrahim Rezaei, chairman of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee.
Outlook
Although the US initiated this new round of confrontation, it is Washington that is currently in the more vulnerable position, according to Americanist political analyst Malek Dudakov.
"The situation looks dead-ended for the Trump administration. He isn't bombing Iran out of strength. The Iranian leadership, as we can see, is exposing his weak hand — his bluff — and pressing their advantage in the negotiations, effectively taking control of the Strait of Hormuz," the analyst said.
In his view, the US president's options amount to two choices: accept the situation, which would mean losing face, or try to reverse it — which is what the Pentagon is currently attempting by striking the Iranian coast.
"A more serious escalation is a risk Trump is wary of," the analyst explained. "There are many reasons: depleted arsenals, the war's unpopularity with the American public, and the threat of a fuel crisis that would fuel inflation. If all of that happens ahead of an election just three months away, the polling picture for the president and Republicans would turn quite grim."
Current strikes, however, are unlikely to significantly affect Iran's missile and drone capabilities, since the IRGC and the Iranian military have skillfully concealed much of that infrastructure in mountainous terrain.
"Tehran understands Washington's weak position and is trying to run out the clock until the election, after which Trump will face a serious domestic political confrontation with the Democrats — one that is already gathering momentum. After that, he will have no time for Iran. So the Iranian leadership's position is quite pragmatic and could well succeed in the near term," Dudakov concluded.
A New Front?
Against the backdrop of renewed US-Iran strikes, the conflict risks widening geographically. On Monday, with Washington's coordination, Saudi Arabia struck the Yemeni capital Sanaa — just before a plane carrying Ansar Allah (Houthi) leadership, whom Washington considers Iranian allies, was due to arrive. The flight ultimately landed in the southwest of the country.
The Houthis responded by striking military facilities in Saudi Arabia. Ansar Allah also said the US is pushing Riyadh toward war with the movement, and threatened to close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
"Bab-el-Mandeb will become one with the Strait of Hormuz, and the price of oil will reach two hundred dollars," said Politburo member Mohammed al-Farah.
Such a scenario would pose serious problems for the US and the global economy. Washington's desperate attempts to pressure Iran and strike its allies are unlikely to fix the situation — and are far more likely to produce the opposite effect.