by Özgür Özel
Authoritarian rule and imprisonment of political opponents could destabilise Nato and the region
As world leaders gather in Ankara for the Nato summit next week, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will use the occasion to project strength. But that image masks a deeper vulnerability: his growing repression of Turkish democracy. His government has detained peaceful protesters — along with lawyers, journalists and academics — while trying to hide the country’s realities from the world. That is bad for Turkey. It also poses a danger to our Nato partners, especially in Europe.
Turkey’s strategic importance is self-evident. It controls access to the Black Sea; borders Syria, Iraq and Iran; and sits close to conflicts that repeatedly test European security. Our armed forces are among Nato’s largest, while our defence industry is increasingly essential to Europe’s security. Yet this strategic strength masks a darker reality. Turkey’s economy is under severe strain: inflation remains above 30 per cent even by questionable official figures, consumer confidence is weak, and millions feel poorer, less secure and less hopeful than a decade ago. Turkey also has Europe’s largest prison population — a sign of a state increasingly reliant on coercion rather than consent.
This domestic weakness has had political consequences. Erdoğan is no longer as popular as he once was. In the 2024 municipal elections, his party suffered its worst defeat since coming to power. The Republican People’s Party (CHP) — which I have led since 2023 — has become the country’s leading local political force. We won by campaigning around the struggles of ordinary people: pensioners unable to pay rent, graduates who saw no future, parents who could not afford decent food for their kids. We spoke both to our voters and former Erdoğan supporters who felt abandoned. His response revealed the weakness at the heart of his system: faced with a real alternative, he has used the power of the state and the courts to eliminate democratic competition.
The first major target was Ekrem İmamoğlu, Istanbul’s mayor and the CHP’s presidential candidate. In March 2025, he was imprisoned on charges of corruption, aiding terrorism and espionage that are widely seen as politically motivated. A broader sweep against the CHP followed. More than 30 opposition mayors have since been detained or imprisoned. And last month, a court annulled the party election in which I was chosen as the CHP leader. By judicial order, I was removed from office and a former party chair who had repeatedly lost elections against Erdoğan was restored.
He is seeking to create his own loyal opposition — one that may contest elections but can never threaten his power. He wants a political order in which voting survives while genuine competition disappears. Russia and Belarus stand as a warning of where this leads.
Our allies should not confuse repression with stability. A Turkey without democratic competition, public legitimacy or the rule of law is not a predictable or reliable partner. Its foreign policy becomes a tool of domestic survival. Today Erdoğan may turn towards Washington, tomorrow towards Moscow, next towards Beijing — solely to help secure his position. The survival of one man’s rule is being placed above Turkey’s national interests.
There is also a more immediate danger. A regime that blocks citizens from believing that change is possible through elections creates hopelessness and anger. Combined with economic mismanagement and deepening poverty, this raises the risk of social and political upheaval. Such an eruption would not remain within Turkey’s borders. It would affect Europe’s security, critical energy routes and the Middle East and Nato’s southern flank.
It is not for Turkey’s allies to prescribe our country’s political trajectory. Turkey’s democrats are not asking for democracy to be imported from abroad. We have seen enough of the illusions, unintended consequences, fantasies and outright failures produced by attempts to reshape societies through external interventions. That task belongs to Turkey’s people. Our citizens have shown, again and again, that they seek change peacefully. They have voted, marched and defended their dignity despite pressure and fear.
At the Nato summit, Erdoğan will present himself as indispensable. But no country’s strategic value is enhanced by the destruction of its democracy. Turkey’s allies need a clear-eyed view of the risk that Erdoğan’s rule poses to their own interests. Lending legitimacy to authoritarian governments in pursuit of short-term geopolitical convenience is a historic mistake. It rarely produces stability. More often, it makes the eventual reckoning more dangerous.