Iranian academic and commentator Seyyed Mohammad Marandi has claimed that the United States is preparing a ground operation with the participation of an unnamed Arab government, warning that the country involved would face devastating consequences.
Writing on social media, Marandi said Washington was preparing “a ground attack using the capabilities of an Arab regime,” adding: “If this attack is carried out, that Arab country will end.” He did not name the state, cite intelligence or provide evidence that a final decision had been taken.
His warning comes amid a renewed US campaign against Iran. US Central Command has confirmed fresh strikes against Iranian military targets and the resumption of a naval blockade targeting Iranian ports, while stating that passage through the Strait of Hormuz for vessels not bound for Iran remains open.
The most plausible interpretation is not a major invasion of mainland Iran, which would require a vast and politically hazardous deployment, but a limited amphibious operation against islands and coastal military positions used to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
The islands scenario
Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb are the most politically sensitive candidates. Iran has controlled the three islands since 1971, but the United Arab Emirates claims sovereignty over them. Their proximity to key shipping lanes makes them valuable platforms for surveillance, anti-ship missiles, drones, fast attack craft and mine operations.
In March, reports said the Pentagon had examined options including the seizure of Abu Musa and the two Tunb islands, along with action against Larak and Kharg islands. The purpose would be to reduce Iran’s ability to disrupt traffic through Hormuz—not to occupy Iranian territory indefinitely.
A seizure of these small islands could, in theory, offer Washington several advantages: it could complicate Iranian targeting of commercial vessels, create visible leverage in any negotiations and place pressure on Tehran without launching a large-scale land war. But the operation would still be highly escalatory. Iran could retaliate against US bases and Gulf energy infrastructure, expand attacks on shipping, or turn the islands into a prolonged missile and drone battlefield.
Which Arab country?
The UAE is the most obvious state implied by Marandi’s statement. Abu Musa, Greater Tunb and Lesser Tunb are claimed by Abu Dhabi, and the UAE has consistently described Iran’s control of them as an occupation.
That does not mean the UAE is preparing to join a landing force. Its most plausible contribution would be intelligence sharing, logistics, access, maritime support, political cover or a symbolic post-operation role. Direct Emirati participation in an assault would carry grave risks for its cities, ports, oil infrastructure and commercial reputation, making it politically far less likely.
Bahrain and Qatar host major US military facilities, but neither has a territorial claim that would make it a natural partner for an islands operation. Saudi Arabia has the military weight to provide support but lacks the UAE’s direct stake and would be cautious about inviting Iranian retaliation against its energy installations. Oman, meanwhile, is the least likely participant given its traditional role as a mediator and its geographic exposure at the entrance to Hormuz.
Viability: tactically possible, strategically dangerous
A limited operation against islands is militarily more viable than a ground invasion of Iran. US naval and air power could suppress fixed Iranian positions, while amphibious forces might seize small, isolated targets. Yet taking ground is only the first phase. Holding it against missiles, drones, mines, special forces and attacks from the Iranian mainland would be far harder.
The political costs could also outweigh the gains. Any operation involving the disputed islands would transform a US-Iran military confrontation into a direct test of Iran-UAE territorial claims. Tehran would present it not merely as an attack on military assets, but as an assault on Iranian sovereignty and an attempt to redraw the regional order.
Marandi’s warning should therefore be treated as a political signal rather than verified evidence of an imminent US-Arab invasion. Nevertheless, the reported US consideration of island-seizure options means that a limited ground operation in and around Hormuz cannot be dismissed. The UAE is the most likely Arab state to be associated with such a scenario—but also the state with the strongest reason to avoid being publicly drawn into it.