Katz Orders Independent Strike Plan on Iran, But Israel's Missile Shield Depends Heavily on US Interceptors

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has ordered the military to prepare a unilateral strike plan against Iran, warning that Israel could return to war "tomorrow" if Tehran fires missiles at Israeli territory — even as new data on the current interceptor shortfall raises questions about Israel's capacity to defend itself without American support.

Speaking to military and diplomatic correspondents on Monday, Katz said he had directed the Israel Defense Forces to prepare for what he called a "blue-and-white operation" in Iran — a term denoting an Israeli-led campaign not dependent on outside forces. "If Iran fires missiles at Israel, Israel will strike Iran with force," Katz said. "There is no equation we will accept in which Iran fires at Israel. This has also been made clear to the Americans. The IDF is just waiting for it and is on alert. There are targets."

Katz identified two scenarios that could reignite the conflict: a decision by President Donald Trump to abandon negotiations with Tehran, or an Iranian missile attack on Israel. "If Iran attacks, that is the third Iran war," he said, adding that renewed fighting "could happen within two days." He said Israel did not wish to disrupt Trump's diplomatic efforts but insisted "there are no compromises" when it comes to self-defense, "not in Lebanon and not in Iran."

The declaration comes amid mounting evidence that Israel's own missile-defense stockpiles were severely strained during the earlier phases of the war. Pentagon data cited by the Times of Israel showed that the United States fired more than 200 THAAD interceptors and over 100 SM-3 and SM-6 missiles defending Israeli airspace, while Israel itself used fewer than 100 Arrow interceptors — with a US official quoted as saying Washington expended far more advanced interceptors protecting Israel than Israeli forces did themselves. A separate report citing a Trump administration official said Israeli interceptor stocks had fallen to "double digits" ahead of the ceasefire, forcing commanders to be selective about which incoming missiles to intercept.

Analysts caution that replenishing depleted stockpiles will take years. The Jewish Institute for National Security of America estimated three to eight years would be needed to rebuild current interceptor inventories at existing production rates, even as Israel has moved to accelerate domestic Arrow-3 manufacturing.

Katz also addressed Lebanon, saying Israel would not withdraw from its security zones "until Hezbollah disarms," and Gaza, noting Israel retains the capability to intensify operations if Hamas is found in violation of ceasefire terms. Separately, Katz disclosed that Israel is investing in space-based laser weapons as part of a longer-term effort to secure a durable military edge over its regional adversaries.