Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would secure 16 Knesset seats if he chose to break away from Likud and contest the next general election with an independent party, according to a new opinion poll published by the Israeli daily Maariv. Despite the personal showing, the survey suggests such a move would still leave him without a clear parliamentary majority to form a government.
According to a poll published by Maariv and conducted by the Lazar Research Institute under Dr. Menachem Lazar in cooperation with Panel4All, Netanyahu's hypothetical new party would win 16 Knesset seats if he ran independently, while a Likud list without him would secure just seven seats. Combined, the two parties would receive 23 seats—three more than Likud currently polls on its own.
Even with the improved combined total, the numbers indicate Netanyahu would still face significant obstacles in assembling the 61-seat majority required to govern in Israel's 120-member Knesset. The findings underscore that stronger personal support for Netanyahu would not necessarily translate into a viable governing coalition.
The survey comes amid growing tensions within Likud over the composition of the party's electoral list. Israeli media have reported disagreements between Netanyahu and senior party figures over the number of reserved slots the prime minister wants to control ahead of the next election. The dispute has fueled speculation that Netanyahu could consider running independently if a compromise cannot be reached, although reports indicate he raised the possibility during private discussions rather than as a formal announcement.
Israel is due to hold its next parliamentary election by late October 2026 unless early elections are called. Recent opinion polls have consistently pointed to a fragmented political landscape, with neither Netanyahu's bloc nor the opposition appearing certain to secure the 61 seats needed to form a government.
Photo: Source