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Qatar Races to Rescue Crumbling US-Iran Ceasefire as Doha Diplomacy Shifts to Tehran

    



Qatari and Pakistani mediators work to bring Washington and Tehran back to the table after a wave of strikes and a tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz threaten to unravel the June 17 memorandum of understanding.

Qatar has stepped up its mediation between the United States and Iran this week, working alongside Pakistan to prevent the collapse of a fragile ceasefire that has been tested by fresh military strikes, an attack on a Qatari-linked tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and the conclusion of week-long funeral processions for slain Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Regional sources say Doha and Islamabad are working behind the scenes to bring the two sides back to the negotiating table after the truce reached under the June 17 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) showed signs of unravelling, with both Washington and Tehran trading blame over renewed strikes in recent days.

Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani spoke by phone with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi this week, urging both sides to recommit to diplomacy and implement the terms of the MoU signed last month. The Qatari premier also condemned an attack on a Qatari tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, according to Doha's foreign ministry.

The appeal came shortly after U.S. Central Command carried out a fresh wave of strikes on Iranian territory, reportedly targeting roughly ninety military-linked sites, including air-defence systems, drone storage facilities and coastal surveillance assets. Iranian state media separately reported that U.S. forces struck the perimeter of a nuclear plant and a fishing pier in Bushehr province, though Washington has not confirmed the latter strikes.

FROM DOHA TO TEHRAN: QATAR'S WIDENING MEDIATION TRACK

Qatar's role as principal broker between Washington and Tehran has deepened steadily since it formally joined the diplomatic push to end the four-month US-Israeli war on Iran on May 22, when it dispatched a negotiating team to Tehran in coordination with the United States. That visit marked a turning point: Doha had until then kept its distance from mediation after Iran struck U.S. bases and U.S.-affiliated infrastructure on Qatari territory during the war.

Qatari negotiators returned to Tehran on subsequent occasions as the diplomatic track advanced, with visits described by Iranian media as covering both bilateral relations and the broader regional file, alongside consultations tied to the wider U.S.-Iran diplomatic process. The reciprocal channel has run in parallel with Doha's hosting of U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, giving Qatar a rare dual-track position — trusted enough by Tehran to be received directly, and central enough to Washington's process to host its senior negotiators.

THE JUNE 17 MOU AND THE DOHA ROUNDS

The current mediation effort traces back to the 14-point Memorandum of Understanding signed on June 17, brokered by Qatar and Pakistan, which set a 60-day ceasefire, provided for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and established a framework for further talks on Iran's nuclear programme, frozen assets and the situation in Lebanon. A follow-up technical-level meeting was held in Lake Lucerne, Switzerland, on June 21, with Pakistani mediators also present.

In the two weeks that followed, however, tensions repeatedly boiled over: Iran struck a commercial vessel it said had strayed from an approved shipping lane, prompting a CENTCOM response against Iranian military targets, which was in turn followed by Iranian missile and drone strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. Against this backdrop, Doha hosted successive rounds of indirect, separate talks in late June and early July: Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed met U.S. envoys Witkoff and Kushner, while Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi led Tehran's technical team in parallel meetings with Qatari and Pakistani mediators.

On July 1, Qatar's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Majed Al Ansari, announced that the separate meetings had achieved what he called "positive progress" on issues tied to the Islamabad MoU, building on the outcomes of the Lake Lucerne summit, with both sides agreeing to resume discussions once the funeral processions for Khamenei concluded. Pakistan's Foreign Office issued an identical statement, underscoring the two countries' joint role as guarantors of the process.

FUNERAL CONCLUDES, CEASEFIRE FALTERS

Khamenei, killed in an Israeli strike on the opening day of the war on February 28, was buried on July 9 at the shrine of Imam Reza in Mashhad, following days of ceremonies in Tehran and Qom. His son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has not appeared in public since assuming leadership and was reportedly absent even from the private family burial, amid concerns over his safety.

Almost simultaneously, the ceasefire that the MoU was meant to consolidate came under renewed strain. U.S. forces resumed strikes on Iranian targets this week even as diplomatic contacts continued quietly in parallel — a pattern American officials have described as pausing between strikes to allow negotiators room to work. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump spoke by phone on Thursday and agreed to continue coordinating on regional developments, according to statements from both governments.

THE STAKES FOR DOHA

Qatar's position gives it unusual leverage in the process: Doha's Central Bank is custodian of the bulk of roughly six billion dollars in frozen Iranian assets slated for release under the MoU's initial phase, funds Tehran has said will be used to purchase goods it needs rather than being restricted to U.S. products, as Washington has previously suggested. Analysts have described this arrangement as making Qatar not merely a neutral conduit but an active stakeholder holding a card of its own in the negotiations.

That prominence has also drawn scrutiny in Washington policy circles, where critics point to Doha's past mediation record — from Lebanon to Gaza — and question whether Qatari-brokered arrangements durably serve U.S. interests. Qatari and Pakistani officials, for their part, have consistently framed their involvement as a continuation of the same channel that produced the June MoU, arguing there is no substitute for sustained dialogue between Washington and Tehran.

WHAT COMES NEXT

As of Friday, no date had been set for the next round of Doha talks. Pakistan's Foreign Ministry has called on all parties to exercise restraint and avoid actions that could further destabilise the region, describing the Islamabad MoU as an enduring foundation despite the latest breaches. With Khamenei's funeral now concluded and Mojtaba Khamenei yet to signal his approach to the negotiating track, attention is turning to whether Tehran's new leadership will authorise its negotiators to return to the table — and whether Doha and Islamabad can again produce the kind of "positive progress" both sides described just over a week ago.