Sudan's El-Obeid Braces for Assault as RSF Intensifies Drone Campaign, Army Claims Border Town Recapture in Blue Nile
Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has stepped up drone strikes on the central city of El-Obeid, targeting fuel depots, power stations and water infrastructure in an apparent bid to weaken the Sudanese army's grip on the strategically vital hub before a feared ground assault, according to reporting from the area.
The Sudanese army says it remains in control of El-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan state, but the RSF has continued strikes aimed at degrading the city's defenses and pressuring civilians to flee, even as escape routes grow increasingly perilous.
A City on the Edge
The UN's human rights office has warned of an impending "catastrophe" in El-Obeid, cautioning that the city could become the next site of major ground combat between the army and the RSF, following the paramilitary's capture of El-Fasher in North Darfur last October after an 18-month siege. Independent investigators concluded that the assault on El-Fasher bore the hallmarks of genocide, and Amnesty International said last week that the atrocities committed there amounted to ethnic cleansing.
Roughly 500,000 people, including some 105,000 already displaced by the wider conflict, remain in and around El-Obeid, according to UN estimates. The RSF has been massing forces around the city for months as part of a broader campaign to consolidate control over the Kordofan region.
Analysts say the stakes of a potential RSF takeover extend well beyond North Kordofan itself. Control of El-Obeid would secure a central corridor linking RSF-held territory in Darfur to army-controlled areas further east, bringing the paramilitary group significantly closer to Khartoum and severely constraining the army's ability to hold the wider Kordofan region. An independent Sudan analyst told regional media that seizing the city would allow the RSF to "connect vast geographical areas and rebuild its political project" after its expulsion from the capital in March 2025.
The International Rescue Committee has warned that as ground troops advance, civilians risk being trapped inside El-Obeid should evacuation routes toward Kosti and White Nile state be cut off. Fuel and water shortages triggered by the drone campaign are already complicating any attempt at mass evacuation, the aid group said, with close to 2,000 residents having fled to White Nile state in recent weeks.
Army Claims Recapture of Kurmuk in Blue Nile
Away from Kordofan, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) said this week it had recaptured the strategic border town of Kurmuk in Blue Nile state, following days of intense fighting against an alliance of RSF fighters and a faction of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu.
Brigadier General Abadi al-Tahir, commander of the army's Al-Naba al-Yaqeen task force, announced the recapture in footage circulated by pro-army media, claiming Sudanese forces inflicted heavy losses on RSF fighters and destroyed military equipment, forcing the remaining combatants to withdraw. The claim has not been independently verified, and neither the RSF nor the SPLM-N faction had publicly responded at the time of reporting.
Kurmuk, which sits on the border with Ethiopia's Benishangul-Gumuz region, had been under RSF-SPLM-N control since a large-scale offensive in late March. Khartoum has previously accused Ethiopia of facilitating that assault by allowing RSF-linked drones to launch from an airport in Ethiopia's Amhara region — allegations Addis Ababa has denied. The town's proximity to the Ethiopian border has made it a persistent flashpoint, raising concerns over cross-border spillover and displacement.
A War Entering Its Fourth Year
The fighting in and around El-Obeid and Kurmuk underscores how Sudan's civil war, now in its fourth year since erupting between the SAF and RSF in April 2023, continues to shift along multiple fronts simultaneously — from Darfur and Kordofan in the west to Blue Nile in the south. Kordofan has emerged as the war's most intense battleground in recent months, with near-daily drone strikes and advancing ground forces threatening to replicate the humanitarian devastation seen in El-Fasher.
Rights groups and humanitarian organizations have renewed calls for an immediate, nationwide ceasefire and the deployment of an international protection force, warning that without urgent intervention, El-Obeid risks following the same trajectory that made El-Fasher synonymous with some of the worst atrocities of the war.