Well-informed sources in the Cypriot capital fear Turkey is preparing to provoke an incident at sea once cable-laying begins on the Cypriot leg of the Great Sea Interconnector (GSI), the Greece–Cyprus–Israel electricity link, according to the Athens daily Estia.
The logic they describe is one of elimination. If Ankara holds back off Kasos, where Greece retreated two years ago, the pressure moves east. The Republic of Cyprus, those sources say, is the weak link: a state Turkey does not recognise, and one that would have to look to Athens for cover.
Ankara's stated position has not moved. No energy project proceeds in the region without its consent. It presses for co-management, demanding notification of any activity in waters it unilaterally designates as its own and claiming "special sovereign rights" — precisely the rights the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea reserves for coastal states beyond their territorial waters.
A Turkish defence ministry document dated 10 August, published by Nordic Monitor, sets that position in a military frame. It describes preparations for crisis, tension and war in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean, notes that deepening Greek–Israeli cooperation has changed nothing in Ankara's approach to security on the island, and commits Turkey to defending the interests of the unrecognized "TRNC" under any circumstances.
Turkey has already answered on the ground. On 20 August in Ankara it signed an expanded package with the Turkish Cypriot side covering fibre optics, natural gas and electricity. Ünal Üstel, "prime minister" of the "TRNC", said gas would come from Turkey, the Kyrenia power station would be converted to run on it, and fibre would reach households by 2027 — a programme he framed as shaping the north for thirty to forty years. ENTSO-E has formally refused the Turkish Cypriot interconnection request, recognising only the GSI.
Athens' exposure now runs through Paris. Meridiam holds 66 percent of the project; the French fund also manages infrastructure in Turkey and keeps a regional office in Istanbul. Estia reports circulating claims that Ankara will reach an understanding with Meridiam over Kasos and shift the theatre southeast.
The calendar sharpens all of it. Greece enters a long pre-election season; Turkey may bring its "Blue Homeland" bill to parliament as early as October. Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis has promised frigates and upgraded F-16s if required. Whether Athens would send them for Cyprus is the question Ankara appears willing to ask.
Photo: Estia