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President Donald Trump said on Thursday he was nearing a decision on whether to resume large-scale attacks on Iran, telling Axios: "I have a big decision coming up. Do I want to go in and annihilate them [the Iranian regime] or do I not? It's a big decision. Anything could happen with me."
The remark is not new in substance — Trump has used apocalyptic language about Iran since the war began on February 28 — but its timing is deliberate. It comes four days before a planned Tuesday meeting with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, a meeting that could shape the next phase of the war and where, if Trump wants to resume major combat operations, he would need buy-in from his regional allies.
That constraint is real and recent. In early August, Trump held off on resuming major combat operations after Saudi Arabia and Qatar expressed concern that Iran would retaliate by bombing Saudi oil and gas facilities. Since then Washington has kept to a low-key posture.
The war is now in its seventh month with no formal diplomacy under way. A memorandum of understanding — an informal peace agreement — collapsed in June, and the conflict has largely fallen into a stalemate, with strikes this month concentrated on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Some US officials warn the conflict has settled into an unsustainable, neither-war-nor-peace stalemate, and believe Trump could return to major combat operations after the midterms if a deal is not reached.
The options on Trump's desk
Regime-collapse campaign. Sustained strikes on Iranian leadership, IRGC command and remaining nuclear infrastructure — the "annihilate" option. Highest risk of the Gulf retaliation Riyadh and Doha warned about in August.
Energy-infrastructure strikes. Refineries and export terminals, including Kharg Island. Coercive, but it pushes oil prices higher at a moment when energy prices are already spiking in the United States as a result of the conflict.
Maritime-only escalation. More tanker and naval interdiction to force Hormuz open, keeping the fight offshore. Satellite images showing Iran rapidly working to rebuild a nuclear site bombed by Israel supply a pretext to widen it.
Freeze in place. Continue the current attrition posture and defer the decision past November.
Gulf-mediated diplomacy. Use the six leaders to revive the collapsed MoU, trading a Hormuz reopening for sanctions relief and nuclear limits.
Delegate to Israel. Shift the strike burden while limiting direct US exposure to Gulf partners.