Israel's election deadlock deepens ten days before the vote. Two blocs remain stuck near 61 seats, and the outcome will turn on the Arab parties, two lists hovering at the threshold, and surplus-vote deals still under negotiation.
By the Editorial Team of TLF
20 October 2026 | Election Analysis
Four television polls and two poll averages were published in the last 48 hours. They agree on one thing: neither side has a clear route to a majority before the 27 October vote.
The Polls: A Near-Symmetrical Standoff
The Maariv average of four recent polls, published Monday, puts Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar! at 21.5 seats. Likud sits at 19 and Naftali Bennett's Together at 12.5. The opposition's Zionist bloc averages 51.25 seats to Netanyahu's 51. The Arab parties average 13.75.
Channel 12's poll, released the same evening, was the most favourable to Eisenkot. It gave Yashar 24 seats, one more than its previous survey. Likud took 21, while the Democrats and the reconstituted Joint List each took 9. Channel 12 put Eisenkot's bloc at 55 seats against 51 for Netanyahu's, according to a Haaretz summary.
Channel 13 told a different story. Its poll gave Eisenkot's bloc 51 and Netanyahu's 50. Both channels published on the same day and reached opposite conclusions about the lead.
An earlier i24NEWS poll, published about nine days before the vote, had Likud at 25 and Yashar at 21, with Together at 13. It also had Otzma Yehudit at 10, which the channel called the first time Ben-Gvir's party reached double digits in its polling. A Srugim average compiled on 19 October put Likud narrowly ahead, 22 to 21. It gave the right-wing bloc 55, the centre-left bloc 48, the Arab parties 13, and four seats outside both blocs.
The Threshold Fight: Winter and Hendel-Zelicha
Two smaller lists could decide the outcome. Ofer Winter's Amcha Yisrael sat at 2.8 per cent in Channel 12's poll, below the threshold for a third straight survey. Channel 13 showed it clearing the bar. The Reservists-Economic list led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelicha is in the same position. It passes in some polls and fails in others, and it currently sits outside both blocs.
The two parties clashed this week over surplus-vote agreements, the arrangements parties near the threshold use to pool votes. Hendel said Winter's party asked for a surplus deal without accepting his party's condition: that Winter sit only in a Zionist government. Winter denied any approach was made, and called the charge the kind of spin his campaign is meant to end. Votes for a list that misses the threshold are wasted, which is why the terms of these deals matter.
The Arab Parties: Reunification Under Pressure
The Arab side may matter most. Hadash, Ta'al and Balad agreed to run again as a Joint List, with Ta'al leader Ahmad Tibi heading the faction. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, has not joined, though its leaders say the door is open.
The deal has not settled the list order. An early Hadash–Balad arrangement left Tibi's party only the second and ninth places, according to Kan. The dispute went to the Arab parties' reconciliation committee, which was expected to decide within about a week. Polls put the Joint List at roughly 13 seats as a single entity. Balad on its own missed the threshold in at least one survey.
Turnout is the other half of the equation. An Israel Hayom column argues that Arab turnout has tracked whether the parties run jointly, and that separate runs pushed turnout to 45 per cent in 2021. Some parties in Eisenkot's bloc have said they will not rely on Arab votes. Haaretz's summary of the Channel 12 and 13 polls says that leaves his bloc below 60 seats even in its better scenarios.
Leading Is Not Governing
Eisenkot now leads most surveys. He still needs 61 seats, and in most polls his bloc reaches that only with Arab-party support, which some of his partners reject. Netanyahu's bloc needs Otzma Yehudit, Shas and the religious Zionist list to hold together, and in most scenarios it falls short of 61 without Winter or Hendel-Zelicha. The Knesset dissolved in July after completing its full term for the first time since 1988, and candidate lists closed on 7 September.
THE LEVANT FILES | EDITORIAL ASSESSMENT
The deadlock looks structural. Eisenkot's lead appears in several polls but narrows in the averages. Amcha Yisrael and the Reservists-Economic list could tip the balance or fall out entirely. The Joint List's reconstitution could move the most seats, but only if the list-order dispute is resolved and turnout follows. Any government formed after 27 October will likely depend on surplus-vote deals and the Arab parties' position, not on who finishes first.
Treat any single poll as one data point. The pollsters disagree by as much as six seats on the same question.
Editorial note: This article draws on Hebrew-language reporting from i24NEWS, Channel 12 (Mako), Channel 13 (via Haaretz and Kipa), Maariv, Kan, Israel Hayom and Srugim, retrieved 20 October 2026. Poll figures are reported as published. Several items come from excerpts rather than full articles; check figures against the originals before republication. Sources are linked within the text.
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