He conceded on Sunday night. The student-backed opposition now has enough support to form a government.
By the Editorial Team of TLF
26 October 2026. Results remain provisional.
Did Vučić Actually Lose?
Reuters’ Monday update, based on the election commission’s count with almost 99% of votes in, gave the Student List 52.7%. The alliance led by Vučić’s Serbian Progressive Party, or SNS, got 39.2%. The majority is clear. Seat allocations are still provisional.
Note what kind of election this was. It was parliamentary. Vučić resigned as president in September and wanted to become prime minister. That bid failed. A separate presidential election is still due before the end of the year.
His concession counts. So does his promise to stay politically active. In his election-night address, reported by the public broadcaster RTS, he acknowledged the students’ win and also attacked what he called foreign involvement. The transfer of power still has to happen.
How Did a Protest Movement Win an Election?
It started with people who died. The collapse of the railway-station canopy in Novi Sad in November 2024 killed 16 people. Questions about it turned into a nationwide challenge to a government accused of letting corruption and political connections override public safety. Vučić and the SNS deny the corruption and repression charges.
Students went beyond their campuses. They walked and cycled across Serbia, going to communities where pro-government television had shaped the political conversation. Their electoral list included farmers, artists, academics and other professionals. Students ran the movement, and others stood as candidates.
The campaign focused on accountability and transparent public procurement. The Democratic Party and Kreni-Promeni backed the movement rather than running competing lists.
Nearly two years of demonstrations gave people repeated chances to take part, to meet neighbours, and to find out others shared their anger. Turnout approached 70%.
Is This a Defeat for Putin? Will Serbia Turn Against Russia?
Moscow has lost a partner it knew well. Russia had a working relationship with Vučić and understood how to handle him. That personal channel no longer has its old weight in Belgrade.
The Kremlin’s first response was measured. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged the result, praised Vučić’s role in bilateral relations, and said he hoped Vučić would keep supporting those ties from opposition.
Some interests outlast an election. Russia is Serbia’s main natural-gas supplier, and historical and religious ties give the relationship support among part of the public. Any new cabinet will have to deal with those ties.
So be cautious about any quick reversal on sanctions. The Guardian reports that the Student List’s manifesto backs continued partnership with Russia and opposes punitive measures.
Vučić has said his opponents will impose sanctions by spring. That is his accusation, not an announced government decision. What the evidence supports is narrower: Russia faces a less predictable political environment, and Serbia’s actual policy is still untested.
Has the EU Won? Could Serbia’s Accession Move?
Brussels has reason to be hopeful. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen congratulated the Student List and offered support on judicial reform, media freedom and fighting corruption. Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said the EU’s door stays open. Both statements tie the election to reforms that could move Serbia’s accession forward.
The backlog is long. Membership negotiations began in January 2014. According to the EU Council’s current overview, 22 negotiating chapters have been opened and only two have provisionally closed. A new government can improve the political climate. Accession still requires legislation, credible enforcement and agreement among EU members.
The EU has its own problems. The Financial Times argues that Western governments tolerated Vučić’s increasingly authoritarian rule because they saw him as an essential regional interlocutor. It says his defeat challenges that approach.
The real test is whether European support helps build independent institutions. Voters gave a government a mandate to fix domestic failures. Treating the result as backing for every EU foreign-policy demand goes beyond what the evidence shows.
What Changes for Kosovo, the Balkans, China and the United States?
Some diplomatic opening, but also continuity on several issues.
A change of government does not produce a new Serbian position on Kosovo. Political scientist Jasmin Mujanović told Le Monde the result could help regional security, but he warned against expecting Belgrade to reverse its policies on Kosovo, Bosnia or Montenegro. The incoming movement brings together different political traditions, and its shared goal of removing Vučić leaves hard questions open.
Regional leaders are adjusting. Montenegro’s president and prime minister welcomed the outcome and spoke of a new chapter in relations with Serbia. That suggests room for a less confrontational conversation, though goodwill has not yet become policy.
China remains a major investor, and the EU remains Serbia’s largest trading partner. Those economic ties limit how quickly Belgrade could turn diplomatically.
In Washington, Republican congressman Joe Wilson welcomed the result and called for reducing Russian and Chinese influence. His view is his own. It is not an agreed Serbian programme or a White House announcement.
The first decisions in Belgrade will show the most: who becomes prime minister, who takes the ministries, and how the new majority handles investigations into the old administration. In the reporting reviewed, the Student List had not yet named its prime minister.
For families still waiting for accountability over Novi Sad, those decisions will matter far more than congratulations from foreign capitals.