Turkey Will Not Like It: Reported $235 Million Israeli Arms Deal Puts Azerbaijan’s Israel Ties at the Centre of Its Rift with Ankara
Turkey will not like it. A reported $235 million Israeli arms contract may be going to Azerbaijan, just as Baku and Ankara argue openly over headscarves, Israel and credit for the war in Karabakh. The alliance is still standing. The quarrel is no longer private.
By the Editorial Team of TLF
20 October 2026 | News Analysis
On 19 October, Israel's Elbit Systems announced a $235 million contract to supply precision rockets and launchers to an unnamed "European" customer. According to the company's announcement, the package includes EXTRA-MR medium-range rockets with a reach of up to 80 kilometres, PULS launchers and logistical support. Deliveries run over three years under an intergovernmental arrangement between Israel's Ministry of Defence and the buyer's defence ministry.
Elbit had not named the customer when the announcement was published. Israeli outlet Globes has reported that the buyer is Azerbaijan. Neither Elbit nor Baku has confirmed it. The report still arrives at an awkward moment, as two states that call themselves one nation trade public criticism.
A Headscarf Row Opens the Door
The trigger is Azerbaijan's apparent enforcement of a ban on headscarves in state schools. In September, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan told the UN General Assembly that the restrictions were an attack on women's most fundamental rights. He did not name Azerbaijan. Most observers heard it anyway.
Pro-government Turkish media and AKP-linked politicians urged Erdoğan to take the matter up with President Ilham Aliyev. Religious groups protested outside the Azerbaijani consulate in Istanbul, and some speakers asked whether Azerbaijan's government deserves the word "brotherly" at all. Turkey kept its own headscarf ban in schools until 2014, which does not help Ankara's position.
Why Israel Became the Sore Point
Those speakers pointed to Israel. Azerbaijan's security and economic ties with Israel grew after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020, when Israeli-made long-range drones and precision weapons helped Baku's forces, alongside Turkish support. Turkish critics now say a partnership with Israel makes little sense for a "brother" of a country that is deeply hostile to Israel over Gaza.
In September, the Azerbaijani delegate stayed in the UN General Assembly hall during Netanyahu's speech while dozens of other delegates walked out. Turkish commentators pounced on it.
Ankara has its own record here. Erdoğan has said Turkey could "enter Israel just as we entered Karabakh and Libya." That sits uneasily beside Azerbaijan's insistence that its ties with Israel are its own affair.
Aliyev Rewrites the War
Aliyev has added a grievance of his own. Earlier this month, according to OC Media's explainer on the spat, he said Azerbaijan won Karabakh "entirely on our own" and that when Baku needed help, no one helped.
That is a sharp change. In December 2020, Aliyev said Azerbaijan had felt Turkey's support from the first hours of the war. Erdoğan claimed a share of the victory in 2024, and Azerbaijan's state newspaper criticised him for it. Both leaders now compete for credit for the same war, and that contest is tied to a bigger question: who sets the terms of the alliance.
The Alliance Still Holds
The relationship is not breaking. On 30 September, in the middle of the spat, Turkey and Azerbaijan signed defence contracts worth about $500 million. Earlier this year they agreed a 15-year natural gas supply deal from Azerbaijan's Absheron field, starting in 2029. Turkey wants less dependence on Russian energy, and Azerbaijan's share of Turkish gas imports roughly doubled over the past decade.
Neither Erdoğan nor Aliyev has directly criticised the other. Azerbaijani pro-government media have defended ties with Ankara instead of attacking Turkey, which they usually do during real disputes. The Azerbaijani Media and Broadcasting Council blamed "unfounded and biased claims" in Turkish media.
Ynet reported, citing sources, that Azerbaijan has kept working behind the scenes to lower tensions between Israel and Turkey. An unnamed Azerbaijani official reportedly said the tensions had to come down immediately.
What the Contract Changes
Israel–Azerbaijan defence cooperation is not new. If the Azerbaijani identification holds, the Elbit contract changes how visible it is. It lands while Ankara is most sensitive to Baku's ties with Israel, and while Azerbaijan is asserting a more independent regional role.
Baku still leans on Turkey. It just no longer wants to look like it follows Ankara's lead.
THE LEVANT FILES | EDITORIAL ASSESSMENT
A religious dispute, an arms contract and a fight over the war's history are testing the Turkey–Azerbaijan relationship. None of them is likely to end the alliance soon. Together they show that Baku and Ankara disagree about what the partnership is for.
Three signals to watch: whether Elbit or Baku confirms the customer, whether Erdoğan raises the headscarf issue directly with Aliyev, and whether the defence and gas agreements stay on schedule.
Editorial note: The identification of Azerbaijan as the customer rests on Globes' reporting and has not been confirmed by Elbit or Baku. Sources are linked within the text.
THE LEVANT FILES · REAL NEWS. DEEPER ANALYSIS.