On October 5, a Saudi-led coalition announced fresh strikes against the Houthis. Yemen is exposing an uncomfortable gap inside the American-Saudi alliance. Riyadh needs protection now. For Saudi leaders, the immediate test of friendship is whether Washington will help keep their territory and export routes safe.
By Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias
Chief Editor, The Levant Files | Opinion
Riyadh Cannot Wait
Axios reported on October 2 that Washington withheld airstrikes, prioritising Iran, while supplying Saudi Arabia with intelligence and targeting assistance. So American support continues. But Riyadh cannot shoot down a drone with an assurance that Tehran will eventually buckle under pressure.
Iran's defeat is sometimes imagined as the first domino, with Hezbollah and the Houthis falling afterwards. I distrust that certainty. Weakening Tehran could reduce its support for allied groups, but even a badly damaged Iran could leave Saudi Arabia confronting armed movements able to keep fighting. Yemen already gives us reason to question the promise.
In March, AP reported that Saudi leaders were urging Trump to keep fighting Iran. Calling the kingdom uninterested in confrontation would erase that evidence. Its present predicament shows how quickly a campaign welcomed as an opportunity can become a threat to the country backing it.
What Saudi Arabia Expects
The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan on August 7, offers Riyadh another source of protection. Trump welcomed it. Pakistan described the arrangement as defensive and open to others, with Turkey also saying it was not aimed at Iran.
That matters. Washington can welcome regional responsibility and still misunderstand what Riyadh expects from it. A Saudi search for protection does not create an obligation to join every American escalation against Tehran. Treating the pact as such an obligation would make its defensive promise almost meaningless.
Israel adds another unresolved argument. Saudi Arabia has formally told Washington that diplomatic relations require an independent Palestinian state. American impatience cannot wish that condition away. Asking Riyadh to embrace Israel while settlement expansion threatens Palestinian statehood demands a political concession Washington has yet to secure from Israel itself.
Riyadh has grounds to demand a clearer American answer. Declaring a permanent rupture would go too far, and today's Saudi calculations tell us little about how the kingdom might behave in another crisis. Will Washington help protect Saudi export routes and support a settlement in Yemen, even while its confrontation with Iran continues?