Yemen's Red Sea Battle Raises a New Alarm: Southern Separatists Claim the Victory, UAE Role Under Scrutiny
Yemen's government says it has secured Bab al-Mandeb and Mayun island, but the battle for the Red Sea gateway is exposing another fault line: the UAE-backed southern separatist movement, widely reported dissolved in January, is mobilising again and insisting that battlefield sacrifices must deliver an independent southern state. A renewed Emirati military intervention remains unconfirmed.
By the Editorial Team of TLF
The apparent contradiction has an explanation. The Southern Transitional Council lost its territorial ascendancy earlier this year, but the announcement of its dissolution never settled the argument inside the movement. Its surviving leadership kept speaking, organising and claiming the right to represent the south.
Now the war has given that leadership a fresh opening.
The Council That Refused To Disappear
The British House of Commons Library's updated Yemen briefing describes a Saudi-backed counteroffensive that stripped the STC of territory and removed its representatives from the Presidential Leadership Council in January. It also records that the dissolution was disputed and that the movement subsequently relaunched as the Transitional Council of South Arabia.
The distinction matters. Losing territory and government positions left the separatists weakened, while their political organisation and independence campaign survived.
In its 4 October communiqué, the council announced preparations for popular mobilisation and mass rallies in Aden and other southern governorates on 14 October. It named the Houthis among the threats, but also attacked what it called tutelage and occupation, and rejected rival coordinating councils. The announcement combines support for fighters with a campaign to preserve the separatists' political authority.
A new statement published on 9 October makes that ambition unmistakable. Aidarous al-Zubaidi mourned Colonel Muadh Ali Saleh al-Ma'da, identified by the council as commander of the 16th Southern Giants Brigade and emergency forces in al-Dhale, and comrades it said had died fighting the Houthis. He insisted that their sacrifice must lead to a sovereign southern state and warned against others appropriating southern military victories.
Those are the council's claims and political demands. They establish that its leadership is still active, without establishing who commands every formation fighting along the coast.
There is also a trap in the footage circulating online. Al Araby Television's fact-check found that a video presented as a recent mobilisation speech by Zubaidi came from May 2020. The October organisational announcement is genuine. That recycled speech cannot establish a new military order.
What Has Happened At Bab Al-Mandeb?
The island is Mayun, also known as Perim, in Bab al-Mandeb. The claim concerns this Red Sea gateway, rather than control of several separate straits.
According to Yemen Monitor's reporting on 9 October, a Yemeni military source told the German news agency dpa that Southern Giants forces, supported from the air, had taken the strait area and Mayun. Saudi ambassador Mohammed al-Jaber separately announced that remaining Houthi forces had been cleared from Bab al-Mandeb. The report also described continued operations and footage released by the Giants showing prisoners in Dhubab and searches on the island.
The wording needs care. In its Friday dispatch, Reuters said it could not verify the ambassador's clearance claim and reported that Houthis remained in Mocha. It also reported three deaths in Thursday's attacks on Riyadh airport. Fighting around Yemen's coast and Taiz continues.
Holding coastal positions and an island can improve access to the shipping channel. Safe passage still depends on whether attacks can be launched from elsewhere. A battlefield announcement alone cannot give shipowners that assurance.
Has The UAE Returned To War?
No fresh Emirati deployment is confirmed in the sources reviewed for this article. The Commons briefing records the withdrawal of the UAE's remaining forces in January, after the rupture with Saudi Arabia, while noting that analysts expected Abu Dhabi to retain an interest in Yemen.
The armed groups require closer attention. Reuters' updated guide to the combatants describes a divided Giants movement: its largest faction is led by Presidential Leadership Council member Abu Zara al-Muharrami, another remains loyal to the UAE, and Homeland Shield forces are now Saudi-supported. Their shared origins cannot establish present-day Emirati command.
The political hostility also survives the common fight against the Houthis. In a statement published by the council on 11 September, foreign affairs representative Amr al-Bidh blamed Saudi Arabia's January campaign against southern forces for enabling the Houthi advance towards Bab al-Mandeb. That is the separatists' accusation, rather than an independently established explanation.
Read together, the announcements point to a dangerous contest over the next stage of the war. The recognised government claims to be restoring state authority. Zubaidi claims that southern fighters are earning independence. Both can welcome Houthi retreats while pursuing incompatible outcomes.
The immediate test is whether the forces advancing around Bab al-Mandeb can hold their gains. Behind them, the separatists are already arguing over whose flag those gains should serve.