A new defense analysis, relayed by Iran's Entekhab, finds no clear evidence Tehran used foreign intelligence support in its recent strikes on U.S. bases — but points to Chinese satellite imagery, Russian-style drone tactics, and a real transformation in missile guidance and precision.
Iran has strengthened its ability to strike U.S. bases and critical regional infrastructure through a combination of technical progress in its missile program, the use of satellite imagery, and combat tactics inspired by Russia's war in Ukraine, according to a Guardian analysis relayed by the Iranian outlet Entekhab.
According to a new report from The Guardian, cited by The Entekhab, Iran's recent strikes demonstrate greater precision and destructive capability, while also revealing potential weaknesses in U.S. air-defense systems stationed in the region.
The Muwaffaq Salti Strike and the THAAD Question
The analysis centers on a strike against Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base — a facility protected by the U.S. THAAD advanced missile-defense system — which killed three American soldiers. Satellite imagery released by Iranian media showed damage to several of the base's installations, prompting the U.S. Department of Defense to open an inquiry into why the defense system failed to intercept the attack.
The Guardian's report treats the incident as confirmation that Iran retains advanced missile capabilities and is increasingly prepared to use them in direct confrontation with the United States.
Iran's missile capabilities have undergone a "real transformation," the product of simultaneous advances in intelligence-gathering, missile-guidance systems, maneuverability, and complex attack planning.
Citing Andreas Krieg, a researcher at King's College London, the report describes Iran's missile capabilities as having undergone what he calls a genuine transformation — the result of parallel progress in intelligence collection, missile-guidance systems, maneuverability, and the planning of complex, multi-layered attacks.
According to the analysis, this progress followed years of work updating Iran's ballistic missile program. U.S. intelligence assessments cited in the report indicate that, despite earlier American strikes said to have severely degraded Iran's military capabilities, a large portion of the missile program remains functional.
Chinese Satellites — Contested Evidence
The report examines the possible role of Chinese satellite imagery in improving Iran's target-identification capabilities, noting that the United States has imposed sanctions on Chinese companies accused of supplying space-based imagery of American military sites in the region — including bases housing aircraft and air-defense systems such as Patriot and THAAD.
Against this, the Guardian cites a more cautious assessment from Sidharth Kaushal, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), who argues that Iran has largely targeted fixed sites whose locations can be determined through commercially available satellite imagery, without requiring classified Chinese data.
Kaushal stresses that no clear evidence currently shows Iran used foreign intelligence support to strike mobile or highly sensitive operational targets.
Bases Built for a Different War
The report raises a broader question about how prepared U.S. bases in the region are to counter Iranian ballistic missiles and drones — noting that many of these installations were, according to the analysis, originally designed to counter attacks by irregular armed groups rather than the large-scale missile strikes of a state with an advanced arsenal.
The Guardian's article further notes that the sheer breadth of targets requiring protection — military bases, oil facilities, refineries, and desalination plants — makes comprehensive protection extremely difficult to achieve.
Echoes of Russia's Playbook in Ukraine
The report explores the possibility that Iran has drawn on Russian battlefield experience, particularly given similarities between some of Iran's attack methods and tactics Moscow has employed in Ukraine. Among the most notable is the early use of drones to exhaust or divert air defenses before launching more powerful, more precise ballistic missiles at primary targets.
Experts cited in the analysis caution that this resemblance does not necessarily indicate direct Russian training of Iranian forces and may instead reflect parallel observation of modern warfare by both sides and indirect exchange of military experience.
Multi-System Guidance and Terminal-Phase Maneuvering
On the technical side, the report explains that Iran's ballistic missiles now rely on a combination of global navigation systems — using the American GPS network alongside China's BeiDou and Russia's GLONASS simultaneously — which increases guidance accuracy.
It also notes that some Iranian missiles are now equipped with warheads capable of changing course during the descent phase, combined with thermal- and optical-sensor guidance in the terminal phase of an attack — reducing the effectiveness of electronic jamming tools. The report characterizes these capabilities as a growing challenge for U.S. air defense, particularly given the strain on interceptor stocks for the Patriot and THAAD systems following extensive use in recent military operations.
"Cooperation, Not an Alliance"
The report concludes by noting that ties between Iran, Russia and China — along with North Korea — have become more visible in certain military and technological areas, but stresses this does not amount to a full military alliance comparable to NATO.
According to experts cited, this cooperation is based on an exchange of interests and experience rather than a shared defense system, since relations among these countries still fall short of the unified military coordination that characterizes traditional alliances.
The analysis concludes that Iran has, in recent years, built a more advanced offensive capability combining precision missiles, drones, and improved intelligence-gathering — a development it says is forcing the United States and its allies to reassess their defensive posture in the Persian Gulf region.
Photo: Al Arabiya