The Levant Files

By the Editor of TLF As of 29 September 2026 (Asia/Nicosia), fighting that resumed last week between Ethiopian federal forces and forces aligned with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) appears to have seriously undermined the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement. Reporting published in the last 24–48 hours points to rapidly shifting front lines, an expanding Afar dimension, communication disruptions, and increasingly international accusations. Several battlefield claims remain independently unverified because access and communications in northern Ethiopia are constrained. What Has Happened In The Latest Hours Alamata: Pro-government forces say they retook the strategically important southern Tigray town of Alamata. The town is a logistics hub near the Amhara border and has changed hands in earlier fighting. See Ethiopia's Army Chief Accuses Eritrea, Sudan And Egypt Of Supporting Tigray Rebels and Ethiopian Pro-Governm...

Renewed fighting in Baidoa is more than a local power struggle. It exposes the widening fracture between Mogadishu and Somalia's regions, consumes forces needed against al-Shabaab, and places Turkey's expanding military role under an unforgiving spotlight. The Editorial Team of TLF What Happened In Baidoa Somalia's latest outbreak of violence came on September 28 in Baidoa, the capital of South West State and one of the country's most important humanitarian centres. Forces loyal to former regional president Abdiaziz Hassan Mohamed Laftagareen fought federal troops and fighters backing the current South West administration. Local reporting put the death toll at at least 10, with dozens wounded. Residents described explosions, sustained gunfire and fighting near major junctions before the immediate confrontation eased later that day. The figures should be treated cautiously. Somalia's wars are full of rival claims, delayed casualty reports and...

The war has upended the Gulf’s old security assumptions, forcing states to reconsider their reliance on the US and future ties with Iran. By Giorgio Cafiero · 28 September 2026 The US-Israeli war on Iran and its chaotic spillover effects across the Middle East and beyond have forced the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members to come to terms with new realities. Calculations about the Gulf’s security architecture are being reassessed, and Gulf states have been seriously questioning longstanding assumptions about the United States’ commitment to their security in the face of regional threats, chiefly from Iran, which retaliated against US and Israeli attacks by firing missiles and drones at the GCC states since the outset of this conflict on 28 February. Looking ahead, what will emerge from this conflict is unclear. There will not be imminent reconciliation between Gulf Arab monarchies and Iran. Nor will the Gulf Arab monarchies make a straightforward move away from Washington. What appe...

Five British men arrested near RAF Fairford, a UK base used by US bombers during the Iran war, have been released on bail. The case is still live, the questions are still open, and counterterror officers are working through several possible motives. By The Editor Team of TLF Five men arrested near RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire have been released on police bail while a counterterrorism investigation continues. Police say the men are British nationals from London, aged between 23 and 25. They were detained after three vans were reported near the base, which has been used by US aircraft during operations connected to the war in Iran. AP reported that they remain under investigation and face strict bail conditions. The arrests prompted the evacuation of roughly 85 homes in nearby Whelford. Bomb-disposal teams examined the vans, and residents have since been allowed back home. A cordon remains around the vehicles. Material found at the scene is understo...

Iran’s growing aviation restrictions are not just about cancelled flights. They are making travel, trade, family visits and access to essential services more expensive and uncertain for ordinary people—while adding another layer to the country’s already strained ties with the outside world. By the Editorial Team of TLF Washington is reportedly expanding pressure on Iran beyond direct sanctions on airlines and banks, seeking to influence the foreign airports, fuel suppliers, ticketing services and financial institutions that keep Iranian aircraft moving. The strategy, described in a report published by Shargh Daily , aims to make continued commercial engagement with Iran riskier for third countries. The effect is being felt across the region. Flights have reportedly been restricted or suspended in countries including Iraq, Oman, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Iraq, which has deep economic and social ties with Iran but also faces pressure from Washington, has reportedly explored w...

Serbia has entered one of those tense, unsettled political moments when a resignation changes the formal picture overnight, while leaving the deeper struggle completely open. Aleksandar Vucic is no longer president. His political influence, his party's machinery and the anger that has filled Serbia's streets for nearly two years have not disappeared. The country now faces a parliamentary election on October 25 and a presidential vote by the end of December. By the Editorial Team of TLF 1. What happened? Aleksandar Vucic resigned as Serbia's president on September 27. He said he wanted to take part in the coming parliamentary election as an ordinary citizen, though this is plainly a major political move rather than a retreat from public life. Vucic has led Serbia as prime minister or president since 2012 and is barred from seeking another presidential term. He is now heading the Serbian Progressive Party's electoral list and is expected to seek the pr...

The affair surrounding US Ambassador Kimberly Guilfoyle is bigger than gas, bigger than AKTOR and bigger than one ugly remark at a private dinner. It goes to a harder question: how much room is left for a small democracy to make its own decisions when an allied superpower arrives with political access, commercial interests and the confidence that it can shape events "here" as well? By the Editorial Team of TLF According to the Wall Street Journal's investigation , Guilfoyle clashed with Greek Energy Minister Stavros Papastavrou at a March dinner in Athens attended by Greek and US officials. The discussion concerned Romania's expected government collapse. Guilfoyle was quoted as saying, "We can do that to any country we want. We can do that here." Papastavrou, the Journal reports, replied that the United States could not replace a Greek government elected by its people. Guilfoyle's lawyer disputes that account of the exchange. That matters. A seri...

By the Editorial Team of TLF Five British men remain in custody after armed police intercepted three suspicious vehicles near RAF Fairford, as counter-terrorism officers continue an investigation that has left a Gloucestershire village under heavy security. The men, all from London and aged between 23 and 25, were arrested in the Whelford area in the early hours of Sunday. They were first detained on suspicion of offences under the Explosives Act, then arrested on suspicion of preparing a terrorist act. No one has been charged and police have not publicly identified the men. The incident began at about 12.45am when Gloucestershire Police received a report that three vehicles were travelling towards the air base. Armed officers moved into the area and made the arrests. The Army's explosive ordnance disposal specialists were called in to examine the vehicles, while Counter Terrorism Policing took charge of the wider inquiry. A 400-metre cordon remains around the scene. Around...

By the Editorial Team of TLF Itamar Ben-Gvir's appearance at Al-Aqsa during Sukkot was presented as a religious visit. It was also a show of power. According to Al Jazeera , the Israeli national security minister entered the compound under police protection, and video released by his office showed him taking part in religious rituals. The setting gave the moment its weight. Ben-Gvir is not a private citizen making a pilgrimage. He is the minister responsible for Israel's police. At Al-Aqsa, that distinction is combustible. The compound is administered day to day by the Jordanian-appointed Islamic Waqf under the long-standing status quo. Muslims pray there. Jewish visitors are allowed entry under Israeli control, but public prayer by non-Muslims has long been restricted because of the risk of confrontation. Ben-Gvir's visits have repeatedly pressed against those limits. According to Anadolu Agency , about 1,500 Israeli visitors, including Ben-Gvir, entered the com...

By the Editorial Team of TLF Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has threatened to drive forces he described as enemies out of the Arabian Sea, claiming Iranian attacks had already pushed them away from waters off the country's southern coast. Al Jazeera reported the remarks on September 28, citing Iranian state media. The message marked Sacred Defence Week, commemorating the Iran-Iraq War, and the anniversary of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's killing in 2024. No deadline was given. In the excerpt, Khamenei praised Iranian fighters and those guarding the Strait of Hormuz, saying opposing forces had suffered when they ventured closer to Iran. "The time is fast approaching when the Arabian Sea, too, will be cleared of their presence," he said, according to Al Jazeera's English rendering. The military claim remains independently unverified. The published passage supplies no ship names, locations or supporting evidence, and the original ...