The Levant Files

Important note: Please note that the Arabic service of TLf is currently in a beta phase. We have launched this initiative with the support of our followers, volunteers, and AI technology. Please keep in mind that during this first phase, the Arabic text may contain slight phrasing or translation errors. We aim to launch a fully professional Arabic service in the near future. يرجى العلم أن الخدمة العربية لـ TLf لا تزال في مرحلة تجريبية (Beta). لقد أطلقنا هذه الخدمة بدعم من متابعينا والمتطوعين وباستخدام تقنيات الذكاء الاصطناعي. يرجى أخذ العلم أنه في هذه المرحلة الأولى قد تحتوي النصوص العربية على بعض الأخطاء البسيطة في الصياغة أو الترجمة. نهدف في المستقبل القريب إلى إطلاق خدمة عربية احترافية بالكامل. تل أبيب/الخليج — شهدت الساعات الأخيرة تصعيدًا متسارعًا في وتيرة المواجهة الإقليمية، مع تقارير عن سقوط صواريخ في مناطق من وسط إسرائيل واندلاع حرائق في عدد من المباني، بالتزامن مع اضطرابات حادة في حركة الملاحة البحرية داخل أحد أهم الممرات المائية العالمية لنقل النفط والغاز. وتأتي هذه التطورات ف...

On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched a joint military operation against the Islamic Republic of Iran, striking targets across Tehran and multiple Iranian cities. Within hours, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retaliated by launching large-scale missile and drone attacks against Israel and, critically, against US military installations in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates. This analysis argues that the Middle East has crossed a point of no return: what began as a bilateral escalation between Iran and the US-Israeli axis has already metastasized into a multi-front regional conflagration with profound implications for the Levant, the Gulf, and the international order. 1. Beyond the Brink: A Regional War Already in Motion The question of whether the Middle East is “on the brink” of a regional war is already outdated. The conflict has expanded beyond Iran’s borders in real time. Iran’s retaliatory strikes targeted not only Israel but U...

As the world’s attention remains overwhelmingly fixed on the escalating confrontation between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, another war is raging in the same volatile neighbourhood — one that risks being overshadowed and underreported. In the borderlands between Pakistan and Afghanistan, three days of intense cross-border fighting have erupted into what Islamabad now openly describes as “open war.” The conflict, which escalated sharply on February 27 with Pakistani airstrikes on Afghan territory, threatens to destabilise a region already buckling under the weight of overlapping crises. The US/Israel-Iran war is not the only conflict demanding the international community’s urgent attention. The Pakistan-Afghanistan confrontation, with its own complex web of cross-border militancy, contested sovereignty, and civilian suffering, has the potential to spiral into a wider regional catastrophe — particularly given the geographic proximity of both theatres to ...

Important note: Please note that the Arabic service of TLf is currently in a beta phase. We have launched this initiative with the support of our followers, volunteers, and AI technology. Please keep in mind that during this first phase, the Arabic text may contain slight phrasing or translation errors. We aim to launch a fully professional Arabic service in the near future. يرجى العلم أن الخدمة العربية لـ TLf لا تزال في مرحلة تجريبية (Beta). لقد أطلقنا هذه الخدمة بدعم من متابعينا والمتطوعين وباستخدام تقنيات الذكاء الاصطناعي. يرجى أخذ العلم أنه في هذه المرحلة الأولى قد تحتوي النصوص العربية على بعض الأخطاء البسيطة في الصياغة أو الترجمة. نهدف في المستقبل القريب إلى إطلاق خدمة عربية احترافية بالكامل. إن التوتر العسكري المتزايد حدّةً في شرق المتوسط بين الولايات المتحدة وإسرائيل من جهة وإيران من جهة أخرى، يدفع قبرص إلى موقع أكثر حساسية مما كان متوقعاً. ففي الوقت الذي تُطلق فيه نيقوسيا نداءات عاجلة لخفض التصعيد وتفعّل خطط إدارة الأزمات، تجد نفسها في المقابل أمام خطر التحول إلى هدف محتمل لصرا...

Doğu Akdeniz’de ABD ve İsrail ile İran arasında giderek sertleşen askerî gerilim, Kıbrıs’ı beklenenden daha hassas bir konuma sürüklüyor. Lefkoşa bir yandan tansiyonun düşürülmesi için acil çağrılar yapıp kriz planlarını devreye alırken, diğer yandan son iki yılda derinleşen ABD ve İsrail merkezli güvenlik iş birliği nedeniyle kendisini kontrol edemediği bir çatışmanın potansiyel hedefi olma riskiyle karşı karşıya buluyor. Küçük ölçeğine rağmen, ikili ve üçlü savunma anlaşmalarıyla örülen bu ağ, Kıbrıs’ı “seyirci” konumundan çıkarıp çatışmanın yansımalarına açık bir aktör haline getiriyor. Lefkoşa Alarm Durumunda ABD ve İsrail’in İran hedeflerine yönelik saldırılarının hemen ardından Cumhurbaşkanı Nikos Hristodulidis, “itidal” vurgusuyla gerilimin düşürülmesi gerektiğini açıkladı. Ulusal Güvenlik Konseyi toplandı; Kıbrıs, çatışma bölgelerinden AB vatandaşları ile üçüncü ülke vatandaşlarının tahliyesi için öngörülen ulusal eylem protokolü olan “Estia Planı”nı devreye soktu. Savunma Baka...

Cyprus finds itself in an increasingly precarious position as the military confrontation between the United States and Israel on one side, and Iran on the other, reverberates across the Eastern Mediterranean. While Nicosia has issued urgent calls for de-escalation and activated emergency contingency plans, the island’s deepening integration into US and Israeli security architectures has exposed it to a level of strategic vulnerability that belies its small size. Far from being a mere bystander, Cyprus’s web of bilateral and trilateral defence agreements has made it a potential target in a conflict it has no power to control. Nicosia on Emergency Footing In the immediate aftermath of US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, President Nikos Christodoulides stressed the urgent need for restraint. The National Security Council was convened, and Cyprus activated the ‘Estia’ Plan — the national action protocol for the evacuation of EU and third-country nationals from conflict zones. The Cy...

  Russia condemns military operations as “reckless” and “dangerous,” warns of potential humanitarian and radiological disaster The Russian Federation has issued a stark warning of a looming regional catastrophe following the launch of joint US-Israeli military strikes against Iran, describing the operation as a “reckless step” and a “dangerous adventure” that risks triggering a humanitarian and potentially radiological disaster across the Middle East. In its strongest rebuke yet, the Russian Foreign Ministry characterised the US-Israeli strikes as “a pre-planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression against a sovereign and independent state,” warning that the military campaign threatens to destabilise the entire region with consequences that could extend far beyond Iran’s borders. Lavrov Condemns “Unprovoked Aggression” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov held an urgent telephone conversation with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi in the hours following the onset of strike...

  As the United States and Israel escalate military actions against Iran, China's seemingly restrained reaction is being interpreted by some analysts not as indifference, but as a calculated strategic maneuver. While officially calling for de-escalation and respect for Iranian sovereignty, there is a growing perspective that Beijing might tacitly tolerate limited US-Israeli strikes if such actions ultimately pave the way for a diplomatic breakthrough on the nuclear issue, thereby averting a full-scale regional war. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) has reiterated its consistent stance, expressing "high concern" over the military strikes and emphasizing the need for an "immediate cessation of military action, prevention of further escalation of tensions, resumption of dialogue and negotiations, and maintenance of peace and stability in the Middle East" . This diplomatic language, echoed by state media outlets like Xinhua and Global Times, highlights C...

The Middle East has been plunged into a new and dangerous phase of conflict following coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iran, swiftly met by Iranian retaliation. This rapid escalation over the past 12 hours has placed Turkey in a precarious position, actively engaging in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions while simultaneously bracing for potential regional spillover. Concerns are mounting in Ankara regarding the prospect of being drawn into a wider conflagration. In the early hours of Friday, February 28, 2026, the United States, under the Trump administration, and Israel launched joint military operations targeting Iranian strategic and nuclear facilities across several cities, including Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, and Tabriz. Iran responded promptly with a barrage of ballistic missiles and drones, targeting Israeli sites and US military installations in the Gulf region, specifically impacting the US naval base in Bahrain and other bases in the UAE, Qatar, and Jordan. This excha...

How the US-Israeli War on Iran Reshapes the Risk Calculus for NATO’s Southeastern Flank On 28 February 2026, the US-Israeli joint military operation against Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes across the Middle East have instantaneously transformed the security environment for NATO’s southeastern flank. Turkey, Cyprus and Greece — each differently positioned but collectively exposed — face an interlocking set of risks ranging from direct military entanglement and mass displacement to energy shocks and the destabilisation of a fragile regional order they have spent years trying to navigate. This analysis examines the immediate dangers facing each country and assesses the medium-term implications of what has already become the most significant military escalation in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq War. 1. Turkey: The Most Exposed NATO Flank Of the three countries under examination, Turkey faces by far the most acute and multidimensional risk profile. It shares a 560-kilometre borde...

Στις 28 Φεβρουαρίου 2026, οι Ηνωμένες Πολιτείες και το Ισραήλ ξεκίνησαν κοινή στρατιωτική επιχείρηση κατά της Ισλαμικής Δημοκρατίας του Ιράν, πλήττοντας στόχους στην Τεχεράνη και σε πολλές ιρανικές πόλεις. Μέσα σε λίγες ώρες, το Σώμα των Φρουρών της Ισλαμικής Επανάστασης (IRGC) απάντησε με εκτεταμένες επιθέσεις με πυραύλους και μη επανδρωμένα αεροσκάφη όχι μόνο κατά του Ισραήλ, αλλά—κρίσιμα—και κατά αμερικανικών στρατιωτικών εγκαταστάσεων σε Μπαχρέιν, Κατάρ, Κουβέιτ και Ηνωμένα Αραβικά Εμιράτα. Η παρούσα ανάλυση υποστηρίζει ότι η Μέση Ανατολή έχει περάσει ένα σημείο χωρίς επιστροφή: αυτό που ξεκίνησε ως διμερής κλιμάκωση ανάμεσα στο Ιράν και στον άξονα ΗΠΑ–Ισραήλ έχει ήδη μετατραπεί σε πολυμέτωπη περιφερειακή σύγκρουση, με βαθιές συνέπειες για το Λεβάντε, τον Κόλπο και τη διεθνή τάξη. 1) Πέρα από το κατώφλι: Ένας περιφερειακός πόλεμος που ήδη εξελίσσεται Το ερώτημα αν η Μέση Ανατολή βρίσκεται «στο κατώφλι» περιφερειακού πολέμου έχει πλέον ξεπεραστεί. Η σύγκρουση έχει ήδη εξαπλωθεί πέρα...