The Levant Files

The Azerbaijani government has announced a significant increase in its military budget for 2026. This move, analysts suggest, is driven by a complex web of regional security concerns and a notably deteriorating relationship with its northern neighbour, Russia. According to a report by the pro-government APA media outlet, cited by OC Media, the Finance Ministry plans to add ₼318 million ($187 million) to its defence and security expenditures next year, bringing the total to ₼8.7 billion ($5.1 billion). This represents a nearly 4% increase and will see military spending account for 21% of the entire state budget. The decision continues a trend of militarisation; in 2024, the budget was similarly increased by a substantial ₼1.738 billion ($1 billion), a move then-Finance Minister Samir Sharifov directly attributed to the "Armenian militarisation." Historically, Baku has justified its military spending as a necessary response to tensions with Armenia, which persisted long after A...

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's dangerous new doctrine for Israel emerged starkly this week as he addressed senior treasury officials, declaring that Israel must "conduct itself as though it were Sparta," transforming its economy and society into a permanent war machine. His words came as regional leaders gathered in Doha for an emergency summit following Israel's controversial attempt to assassinate Hamas' negotiating team in Qatar, underscoring Israel's deepening diplomatic isolation. The Haaretz Editorial warns that Netanyahu is not merely attempting to justify a diplomatic and security failure, but instead trying to give it an ideological aura, advocating for life under permanent siege rather than pursuing peace. The gravity of Israel's isolation cannot be overstated. As leaders from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and representatives from the Arab League and Organization of Islamic Cooperation convened in Doha, Netanyahu presented this isolati...

Turkey finds itself in an increasingly challenging position after U.S. President Donald Trump's latest demand that NATO countries stop buying Russian oil, potentially threatening secondary tariffs against nations that continue importing Moscow's crude. Ray Furlong from the RFE/RL's Hungarian Service underlines that among NATO's 31 members, only three countries – Turkey, Hungary, and Slovakia – currently import Russian oil. Turkey stands out as the most significant player, creating a complex diplomatic and economic dilemma for Ankara. "According to our data, Turkey is the third largest Russian oil importer globally," Petras Kanitas, a Vilnius-based analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), told RFE/RL on September 15. The country's reliance on Russian oil stems from substantial economic incentives that will be difficult to abandon. "Turkey buys Russian oil mainly because it's heavily discounted," Kanitas explained. ...

  Turkey's political landscape remains absorbed with the ongoing courtroom drama over the legitimacy of the Republican People's Party's (CHP) recent congresses. On Monday, the Ankara 42nd Civil Court of First Instance postponed the highly charged case seeking the annulment of the party's 38th Ordinary Congress and 21st Extraordinary Congress. The court declined once again to impose precautionary measures—such as suspending the current leadership of Özgür Özel—leaving the CHP management intact for now. The next hearing has been scheduled for October 24, at 10:00 a.m. The lawsuit was filed by former Hatay Metropolitan Mayor Lütfü Savaş and a group of delegates who allege that the congress elections were tainted by bribery and procedural violations. They demand that the congress results be voided under the doctrine of "mutlak butlan" (absolute nullity), which would annul all leadership changes. Their petition also called for the reinstatement of former party lead...

15 September 2025 is shaping up to be a new turning point in Turkish politics. The Ankara 42nd Civil Court of First Instance will today hold a decisive hearing on whether to annul the Republican People's Party's (CHP) 38th Ordinary Congress of November 2023 and its 21st Extraordinary Congress of April 2025. At stake is not just the future of Turkey's main opposition party but also a test of the legal boundaries between politics, judiciary, and democratic institutions. If the court rules for "mutlak butlan" (absolute nullity), the Congresses could be declared legally void—potentially stripping CHP's current leadership of legitimacy and shaking the foundations of internal party democracy.   According to T24, challenges began when former Hatay Mayor Lütfü Savaş and several delegates filed separate lawsuits over the 38th Ordinary Congress—the gathering where Özgür Özel defeated long-time leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu to become CHP's new chairman. In February 2025,...

Turkey's political landscape faces a pivotal moment tomorrow as an Ankara court prepares to deliver a verdict that could determine the fate of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and its democratically elected leadership. The case, centered on the legitimacy of the party's 38th congress, has sparked intense debate about judicial independence and the health of Turkish democracy. Writing in his column for Cumhuriyet newspaper, political analyst Orhan Bursalı warns that the court's decision represents a choice between "the voice and politics of the government" versus "the voice of the people, rights, normal politics, law, economy, and justice." Bursalı outlines several potential scenarios, including the court potentially annulling the congress results, imposing precautionary measures, or even removing the current CHP administration from office. The controversy stems from the party's leadership election, where current chairman Özgür ...

Abdullah Ocalan, the imprisoned leader of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), is reportedly preparing to establish a new political party that would reshape Turkey's Kurdish political landscape. According to insider sources, the party will bear "Turkey" in its name and will be directly controlled by Ocalan himself, who plans to draft its political program personally. This development comes amid ongoing peace process discussions and uncertainty over the fate of existing pro-Kurdish parties. Writing for Kısa Dalga, political analyst Sedat Bozkurt reveals that the new party would be "Ocalan's party, not a party in his orbit or one that supports him." According to Bozkurt's sources, Ocalan envisions Pervin Buldan, current co-chair of the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), as the party's leader rather than former HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtaş, signaling a significant shift in Kurdish political dynamics. The timing of this initiative is particular...

A stark warning has emerged from one of Turkey's most well-known religious figures, Ahmet Mahmut Ünlü, popularly known as "Cübbeli Ahmet Hoca," who has alleged a dangerous rise of Salafist ideology within the influential İsmailağa religious community. Ünlü, who was recently expelled from the group, has pointed to a disturbing conversation referencing an "8,000-man army" ready to "cleanse the inside," suggesting a militant faction is gaining ground within the traditionally more moderate Sufi order. The allegations, which have sent shockwaves through religious and political circles, were detailed in a report by the Turkish newspaper Cumhuriyet. The report highlights Ünlü's concerns following a recent meeting between a high-ranking İsmailağa figure, Mahmut Eren, and representatives from Hizb ut-Tahrir. This transnational organization seeks to establish a caliphate and is designated a terrorist organization by Turkey's High Court of Appeals. The ce...

In a potential shift with far-reaching implications for Syria's fragile geopolitics, the Syrian government may tacitly accept agreements between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkey—provided they avert wider conflict and uphold regional stability, according to a leading international relations analyst.   The Syrian Observer reported that expert Tareq Ziad Wahbi, in an interview with media outlet 963+, indicated Damascus is likely aware of ongoing SDF-Turkey negotiations but could permit limited bilateral arrangements, particularly given Ankara's prior support for President Ahmad al-Sharaa's leadership. This nuanced stance underscores Syria's pragmatic approach to mitigating tensions along its northern border.   Thaw in Relations: From Confrontation to Dialogue   Recent months have revealed unprecedented direct communication between the SDF and senior Turkish officials, marking a stark departure from years of hostility. In May 2025, SDF General Commander Mazloum...

As United Nations-sponsored five-party talks seek momentum on the decades-old Cyprus question, new voices argues that insisting a priori on "sovereign equality" or "equal sovereignty" may be unnecessary. Those principles were already enshrined in the 1960 Constitution of the Republic of Cyprus (RoC), which identified the island's Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot communities as the two rightful co-inheritors of sovereignty from the United Kingdom—an original design that may still light the way to a durable settlement. That argument is set out in a new Cyprus Working Paper (September, Issue: 1) by the Turkish Think-tank TEPAV, which revisits the foundations and breakdown of the 1960 partnership republic. The paper argues that a return to the spirit—and many of the mechanics—of the original bicommunal compact, updated to reflect post-1974 realities, could unblock negotiations and reinforce Cyprus's growing role as a regional security, humanitarian, and diplom...

Καθώς οι επαφές υπό την αιγίδα του ΟΗΕ αναζητούν νέα ώθηση στο πολύχρονο Κυπριακό ζήτημα, μια νέα μελέτη υποστηρίζει ότι δεν είναι απαραίτητο να επιμένει κανείς εκ των προτέρων στο αίτημα της «κυριαρχικής ισότητας». Οι αρχές αυτές περιλαμβάνονταν ήδη στο Σύνταγμα της Κυπριακής Δημοκρατίας του 1960, το οποίο είχε ορίσει ότι οι Τουρκοκύπριοι και οι Ελληνοκύπριοι αποτελούν τους δύο ισότιμους και νόμιμους συνιδρυτές της κρατικής κυριαρχίας που μεταβιβάστηκε από το Ηνωμένο Βασίλειο. Αυτός ο πρωτότυπος σχεδιασμός, θεωρεί η μελέτη, θα μπορούσε να φωτίσει ξανά τον δρόμο προς μια μόνιμη λύση. Η θέση αυτή αναλύεται λεπτομερώς στο Κυπριακό Σημείωμα Εργασίας , Σεπτέμβριος, Αρ. 1 του τουρκικού think tank TEPAV. Η έκθεση επαναξιολογεί τα θεμέλια και την κατάρρευση της εταιρικής δημοκρατίας του 1960 και προτείνει ότι μια επικαιροποιημένη επιστροφή στο πνεύμα—και σε σημαντικό βαθμό και στο λειτουργικό πλαίσιο—της αρχικής διζωνικής-δικοινοτικής συμφωνίας θα μπορούσε να ξεμπλοκάρει τις διαπραγματεύσεις....

Birleşmiş Milletler himayesindeki temaslar, onlarca yıllık Kıbrıs meselesinde ivme ararken, yeni araştırmalar “egemen eşitlik” ya da “eşit egemenlik” talebinde peşinen ısrar etmenin gerekli olmayabileceğini savunuyor. Bu ilkeler, Kıbrıs Cumhuriyeti’nin (KC) 1960 Anayasası’nda zaten yer alıyordu; Anayasa, adanın Kıbrıslı Türk ve Kıbrıslı Rum topluluklarını Birleşik Krallık’tan devredilen egemenliğin iki meşru ortak varisi olarak tanımlamıştı—ki bu özgün tasarım bugün de kalıcı bir çözüme giden yolu aydınlatabilir. Bu argüman, Türkiye merkezli düşünce kuruluşu TEPAV’ın Eylül, Sayı: 1 tarihli Kıbrıs Çalışma Notu ’nda ayrıntılandırılıyor. Rapor, 1960’taki ortaklık cumhuriyetinin temellerini ve çöküşünü yeniden ele alıyor ve 1974 sonrası gerçeklikleri yansıtacak biçimde güncellenmiş, özgün iki toplumlu mutabakatın ruhuna—ve birçok işleyişine—geri dönüşün müzakerelerdeki tıkanıklığı açabileceğini; Orta Doğu’da artan çalkantı ortamında Kıbrıs’ın bölgesel güvenlik, insani yardım ve diplomasi m...

The United Nations General Assembly voted Friday to adopt a resolution advancing Palestinian statehood, a decision Israel swiftly denounced as political theatre.   The proposal, jointly introduced by France and Saudi Arabia during a New York conference in July, was passed with overwhelming support: 142 nations voted in favor, 10 opposed, and 12 abstained. Formally titled the *New York Declaration on the Peaceful Settlement of the Question of Palestine and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution*, the measure describes the pursuit of Palestinian statehood as an “irreversible” process.   The vote coincided with protests outside UN headquarters in Manhattan, where demonstrators rallied under banners reading “Stop Starving Gaza Now,” highlighting the humanitarian toll of the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict.   Israel’s response was swift and uncompromising. Danny Danon, Israel’s UN Ambassador, dismissed the resolution as a “one-sided declaration” and “hollow gesture,” argui...

Ankara's political climate is heating up as the September 15 trial at the 42nd Civil Court of First Instance looms large, threatening to shake both the future of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) and the credibility of Turkey's democratic process. What began as disputes within a parliamentary committee has now evolved into a broader power struggle that intertwines legal battles, party rivalries, and questions about the endurance of Turkey's multi-party system.   According to political analyst Murat Yetkin, writing in Yetkin Report on September 12, the tensions surrounding the "Terörsüz Türkiye" (Terror-Free Turkey) parliamentary commission encapsulate the deeper conflict. He explains that the CHP, faced with what it sees as politically motivated judicial pressures, has called for democratic solidarity from the commission. Without the CHP's participation, Yetkin notes, the body risks losing legitimacy, appearing as nothing more than a platform...

  Syrian authorities announced Thursday the arrest of an alleged Hezbollah cell in Damascus, marking the latest in a string of operations targeting the Iran-backed Lebanese group inside Syria since the collapse of the Assad regime late last year. The security operation, which included raids in the towns of Sasa and Kanaker in western Damascus province, reportedly uncovered significant weapons stockpiles and plans for attacks against Syrian targets.   According to Al-Monitor, Damascus' Internal Security Commander Ahmed al-Dalati stated that the cell members had received training in Lebanon before infiltrating Syria to destabilize the country through planned assaults. Photos released by the Interior Ministry showed five detainees, alongside confiscated military-grade weapons, including missile launchers, 19 Grad rockets, anti-tank systems, and large volumes of ammunition. The Ministry said the suspects have been referred for extensive interrogation over terrorism-related charge...

In a dramatic escalation of regional tensions, Qatar is weighing a fundamental reassessment of its long-standing security partnership with the United States following Israel's strike on Hamas leaders in Doha. A source with direct knowledge told reporters that Qatar will conduct a "deep evaluation" of its security reliance on Washington, warning that it may "find some other partners" to ensure its protection if needed. This sharp message comes as former President Donald Trump privately demanded that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledge not to launch another attack on Qatari soil.   According to Axios , the Israeli strike caught Trump's team completely off guard and infuriated the White House, which had not been consulted before missiles were launched. The move risked destabilizing U.S. alliances in the Gulf and triggered global alarm. Qatar's prime minister, Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman al-Thani, conveyed to Washington that the attack constituted...

Elizabeth Tsurkov, the Israeli-Russian academic held hostage in Iraq for more than two and a half years, has returned to Israel after being freed this week in a complex international operation. The 38-year-old researcher landed at Ben Gurion Airport on Wednesday night, following a short stay in Cyprus that played a critical role in her safe transfer. She was immediately brought by ambulance to Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan for medical assessments and recovery, in a process modeled on the care given to hostages freed from Gaza.   According to a report in The Times of Israel, Tsurkov was captured in March 2023 in Baghdad by Kataib Hezbollah, a powerful pro-Iran militia backed by Tehran. She had been in Iraq to conduct academic research as part of her doctoral studies at Princeton University. For more than two years, her family's only glimpse of her came in a short propaganda video released by her captors in late 2023.   Her sudden release was announced Tuesday, when she was...

Yunanistan, ABD'li enerji devi Chevron ve Helleniq Energy ortaklığının Girit ve Mora Yarımadası güneyindeki sahalarda hidrokarbon aramak için teklif sunduğunu açıkladı. Atina'dan yapılan açıklamada, "Bu, ülkemiz için umut ve fırsat anlamına geliyor" denilirken, gözler Türkiye'nin atacağı adımlara çevrildi. Doğu Akdeniz'deki enerji rekabetinde yeni bir perde açıldı. Yunanistan kamu radyo televizyon kurumu Ert’in haber sitesinde yer alan ilgili habere göre ABD'li küresel enerji şirketi Chevron, Yunanistan merkezli Helleniq Energy ile kurduğu ortaklıkla, Girit ve Mora Yarımadası'nın güneyindeki dört deniz bloğunda hidrokarbon arama ve üretimi için resmi teklif sundu. Bu gelişme, halihazırda bölgede faaliyet gösteren Helleniq Energy için operasyonlarını genişletme anlamına gelirken, ABD'li dev Chevron'un Yunanistan enerji piyasasına ilk adımı olması nedeniyle stratejik bir önem taşıyor. YUNANİSTAN: "JEOPOLİTİK KONUMUMUZU DEĞERLENDİRİYORUZ...

Turkey's political arena is bracing for one of the most turbulent weeks in recent memory, as the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) enters a fateful period between September 15 and 21. Court hearings, party congresses, and decisions from the Supreme Election Council (YSK) have combined to produce a tense atmosphere that could reshape not only the future of the CHP but also the trajectory of Turkish politics for years to come.   As journalist Gökçer Tahincioğlu reported in T24, tensions within the party are rapidly escalating. While the CHP leadership under Chairman Özgür Özel insists that the extraordinary congress set for September 21 will go forward, figures loyal to former longtime leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu see a very different path—one in which legal maneuvers and court decisions could delay, or even cancel, the gathering.   At the heart of the dispute lie two high-impact rulings issued by the YSK. In its first decision, the Council addressed the CHP's crisis i...

The fall of Bashar al-Assad last December was supposed to herald a new chapter for Syria—one of healing, reconstruction, and political renewal. Instead, only months into Ahmed al-Shara's rule, the country once again teeters on the brink of large-scale conflict. Once known as a jihadist commander under al-Qaeda's Syrian branch, Shara has reinvented himself as Syria's interim leader, attempting—with mixed success—to present a pragmatic and stabilizing image to domestic factions and foreign powers alike. Yet his government's pursuit of a heavily centralized political order is worsening sectarian fault lines and igniting new cycles of bloodshed.   According to a September 2025 essay in Foreign Affairs, "How to Avoid Another Syrian Civil War: Start With Embracing Federalism," by Steven Simon and Adam Weinstein, the danger lies not in Shara's murky past but in Washington's uncritical acceptance of his centralized vision for a fractured country. Simon and We...