The Levant Files

By Engin Solakoğlu (former high-ranking Turkish diplomat) The results of the presidential elections in Northern Cyprus resonated in Turkey in several dimensions. Firstly, the defeat of Ersin Tatar, who was supported by the AKP/MHP alliance—an effort that saw the deployment of their high-caliber "weapons" like (the singer) Yavuz Bingöl, (the former Interior Minister) Süleyman Soylu, and (the former commander of the Turkish army) Hulusi Akar—was met with joy by a large segment of the Turkish public who are fed up with this duo. Although it is difficult to draw a direct link, this development reinforced the idea that the AKP/MHP can be defeated at the ballot box, no matter how hard they try. This idea is neither entirely wrong nor entirely correct. Let us explain. Yes, the "People's Alliance" (Cumhur İttifakı) heavily invested in the TRNC election, repeating the nonsense that "if Nicosia goes, Mersin goes, Ankara goes, and God forbid, Jerusalem goes." How...

A tragic incident of femicide and suicide has shocked the city of Erzurum, highlighting the critical failures in Turkey's judicial system regarding the protection of women from domestic violence. Salih Aybas, a man recently released from prison after serving time for violence against Nermin Tirit, murdered her in a public attack before taking his own life. The incident occurred in the early hours of Monday, November 3, 2025, in the Ömer Nasuhi Bilmen neighborhood of Yakutiye district. According to reports, Aybas pursued Nermin Tirit, a cleaning worker at Erzurum Technical University, before shooting her with a handgun in the garden of the housing complex where she lived. Aybas then turned the weapon on himself. Emergency services, including police and medical teams, were dispatched to the scene following the reports, but both Aybas and Tirit were pronounced dead at the site. Their bodies were subsequently taken to the Erzurum Forensic Medicine Institute morgue for examination. The ...

Welcome to The Deep Dive, a podcast from The Levant Files. When the world’s headlines turn to Sudan, the story is often reduced to a simple, brutal equation: two generals, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the official army and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or ‘Hemeti’, of the paramilitary RSF, locked in a devastating struggle for power. But this framing, while convenient, misses almost everything that truly matters. The roots of today’s war are not shallow; they run deep through centuries of history, shaped by powerful empires, colonial manipulation, and a uniquely dangerous political economy. In this episode, we connect the dots from an ancient past, when Sudanese pharaohs ruled Egypt, to the modern catastrophe. We explore how the British colonial strategy of ‘divide and rule’ cemented deep-seated tensions between the country’s center and its vast peripheries. We trace the post-independence cycle of military coups that entrenched the army’s power, and the desperate ‘coup-proofing’ strategy of forme...

In a landmark diplomatic development that signals a dramatic realignment of Middle Eastern politics, Syria's Interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa is scheduled to make a historic visit to Washington, D.C., on November 10. Previously, The Levant Files wrote that " the US special envoy to Syria and ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack, announced at the Manama Dialogue conference in Bahrain that Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa will travel to Washington next week to sign the agreement." The trip, confirmed by U.S. Special Envoy to Syria Thomas J. Barrack, will be the first official visit by a Syrian head of state to the U.S. capital since Syria gained independence in 1946 and comes as the nation formally joins the U.S.-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS. The confirmation of the high-stakes visit was made during the 21st IISS Manama Dialogue in Bahrain. According to a report translated by The Syrian Observer , U.S. Envoy Barrack disclosed the plans to Al-Majalla Editor-in-...

Turkey’s economic landscape was once again thrown into sharp relief on Monday, November 3, 2025, as the official state statistical body and an independent research group released starkly different inflation figures for October, deepening the ongoing public debate over the true cost of living in the country. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) announced that consumer prices rose by 2.55% in October, bringing the annual inflation rate to 32.87%. This marks a slight deceleration from the 33.29% annual rate recorded in September. However, the Inflation Research Group (ENAG), an independent body of academics and economists, painted a far bleaker picture. According to ENAG’s data, the monthly price increase was 3.74%, calculating the annual inflation rate at a staggering 60%. While this is also a slight dip from ENAG’s September figure of 63.23%, the nearly 27-point gap between the official and independent figures continues to fuel public skepticism and concern. The discrepancy is not ...

  The delicate balance of Turkey's ruling People's Alliance (Cumhur İttifakı) has been visibly shaken by a sharp divergence in views over the recent political developments in Northern Cyprus. The friction, centered on the outcome of the latest elections in the internationally unrecognized entity, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), has exposed a rare and public rift between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its key nationalist ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), led by Devlet Bahçeli. The controversy began when MHP Chairman Devlet Bahçeli publicly called for the annulment of the TRNC election results, which saw Tufan Erhürman of the Republican Turkish Party (CTP) emerge victorious. Bahçeli's reasoning was based on the low voter turnout, a stance that directly contradicted the official position of the Turkish government. As reported by the T24 news outlet, while the ruling AKP and President Erdoğan extended cong...

North Macedonia 's long-standing ambition to join the European Union remains in a state of paralysis, as deep-seated historical, cultural, and linguistic disputes with neighboring Bulgaria continue to block its path to accession. The deadlock, which has persisted for years, centers on fundamental questions of national identity and language, with Sofia maintaining a firm veto until Skopje meets a set of contentious political demands. The core of the issue revolves around Bulgaria's insistence that North Macedonia must fulfill the terms of the so-called " French proposal " from 2022, which requires the country to amend its constitution to formally include the " Bulgarian community ." This requirement is a key precondition for advancing the EU accession process. The historical, cultural, and linguistic differences are keeping the EU door closed for North Macedonia, with "fraternal" Bulgaria holding the key, refusing to back down until its neighb...

The long-stalled Cyprus issue is once again at the center of international speculation following a significant political shift in Cyprus and persistent rumors of a new peace initiative from U.S. President Donald Trump. The recent election of Tufan Erhürman as the new leader of Northern Cyprus , succeeding Ersin Tatar, has injected fresh momentum into the decades-old conflict, even as it appears to have caused friction within Turkey’s ruling coalition. The political landscape in the region is being reshaped by the election results, which are rumored to be the true source of recent tensions between the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), in Ankara. While MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli controversially called for Northern Cyprus to be annexed as Turkey’s 82nd province, President Erdoğan adopted a starkly different stance, congratulating Erhürman and signaling a willingness to work with the new administration. This internal diver...

The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a fresh wave of political backlash following two highly controversial appointments that critics argue are part of a broader strategy to undermine Israel's key institutions . The moves, which include placing a divisive figure on a top-secret defense committee and considering a senior role for his son, Yair Netanyahu , have been described by commentators as an attempt to apply the " judicial overhaul model " to the country's defense establishment. The appointments have drawn sharp criticism from political analysts, with one prominent piece of commentary, " Copy, Paste, Destroy: Netanyahu Is Doing to Israel's Defense Establishment What He Did to Its Judiciary ," published in Haaretz on October 31, detailing the severity of the situation. The article, penned by Yossi Verter , suggests that the Prime Minister is acting like a "tyrannical, reckless and malicious emperor who sees the country and its...

As the fragile ceasefire in Gaza faces renewed threats, Turkey is set to host a high-stakes summit on Monday, bringing together the foreign ministers of key regional powers to discuss the future of the peace process. The meeting comes amid escalating fears of a breakdown in the truce and a push by the United States to initiate the highly complex second phase of its peace plan. According to the Al Monitor , the upcoming meeting in Istanbul will gather the foreign ministers of Turkey, Egypt , Qatar , and five other Arab nations to assess the current stage of the ceasefire and coordinate next steps, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan announced on Friday. The announcement follows a week of renewed instability, including Israeli airstrikes inside Gaza that killed over 100 people after Hamas launched an attack against Israeli soldiers in Rafah . Israel has also accused Hamas of violating the truce by failing to hand over all hostage remains as stipulated in US President Donald Trump ...

A fresh controversy has erupted over the academic background of Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, following new claims from a main opposition party lawmaker regarding the validity and timeline of his university degrees. The allegations center on the duration of his undergraduate studies and his enrollment in a master's program, seemingly without the necessary prerequisite equivalency certificate from the Council of Higher Education (YÖK). The claims were brought forward by Namık Tan, a Republican People's Party (CHP) Istanbul Deputy, former Ambassador to Washington, and a past spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Tan, who has been pursuing the matter for months, published a new statement on social media. He asserted that official records indicate Fidan completed a three-year undergraduate program and began his master's degree at Bilkent University before obtaining the required YÖK equivalency. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs had previously dismissed similar...

Podgorica is facing its most turbulent public debate in years, triggered by a violent incident linked to Turkish nationals — and raising difficult questions about the scale and consequences of Turkish migration and investment in Montenegro . On 25 October, in the Zabjelo district of the capital, several men from Turkey and Azerbaijan allegedly stabbed a young Montenegrin who had intervened to defend a group of girls. The attack provoked street protests, led to clashes with police, and resulted in businesses owned by Turks being vandalised in Podgorica and Herceg Novi .   While the suspects are now in custody, the incident has sparked a wave of scrutiny over the growing Turkish footprint in the country. “There are 13,500 Turkish citizens in Montenegro,” Interior Minister Filip Šaranović said, pushing back against wildly inflated speculations of 100,000 circulating online. Yet, the numbers have undeniably risen sharply since 2016 — the year of the failed coup attempt in Turkey. ...

Signs of a shifting Middle Eastern order are emerging as Syria prepares to officially join the US-led anti-ISIS coalition , raising speculation over whether normalization between Damascus and Tel Aviv could follow.   According to Al-Monitor , the  US special envoy to Syria and ambassador to Turkey, Tom Barrack , announced at the Manama Dialogue conference in Bahrain that Syrian interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa will travel to Washington next week to sign the agreement. The ceremony is scheduled for Nov. 10 at the White House, marking Syria’s formal entry into the coalition targeting ISIS remnants.   Damascus' new move represents a significant geopolitical pivot for Syria , which for years had been isolated internationally during its civil war. The report notes that Sharaa’s willingness to work with Washington could pave the way for broader regional realignments, opening the door to engagement with countries once considered adversaries — including Israel .   Dip...

At least two people were killed and around ten others injured after gunfire erupted on Saturday morning in the village of Vorizia, in the municipality of Faistos on the island of Crete. Authorities said the situation escalated into an armed confrontation between two families, prompting urgent reinforcements from specialized police units dispatched from Athens. The operation to stabilize the area and identify suspects is ongoing, with local hospitals treating multiple casualties. According to the Athens-based newspaper Efimerida ton Syntakton (efsyn.gr) , a high-level team led by Police Chief Lieutenant General Dimitris Mallios and the director of the Directorate for Combating Organized Crime (DAOE), Major General Fotis Doutsis, is traveling to Crete. The contingent includes DAOE’s deputy commander, Brigadier Spyros Tsardakas, and a specialized 10-person investigative group, colloquially known as the “Greek FBI,” to assist local services in probing the causes of the bloodshed, locating ...

India is executing a profound and strategic pivot, weaving a complex web of defense and diplomatic ties that stretches from the Eastern Mediterranean to the South Caucasus . This geopolitical arc, anchored by burgeoning partnerships with Israel , Cyprus , Greece , and now Armenia , signals New Delhi 's ambition to project influence beyond the Indian Ocean and establish itself as a critical player in the Eurasian security architecture . The recent, multi-billion dollar defense agreements with Armenia are not isolated transactions but the latest, most visible manifestation of this grand strategy, which is fundamentally reshaping regional power dynamics. The Cornerstone: India-Israel Defense Nexus The foundation of India's strategic presence in the Levant is its long-standing and robust defense relationship with Israel. Since the formalization of diplomatic ties in 1992 , this partnership has evolved into a strategic nexus, making Israel one of India's most crucial defense...