The Levant Files

North Cyprus Remands Greek Cypriots as Tit-for-Tat Tensions Escalate   The de facto authorities of the internationally unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus have placed two of the five recently detained Greek Cypriots in pre-trial custody for three months, in what Greek-Cypriot officials and lawyers describe as a direct reprisal for the Republic of Cyprus’s decision to launch criminal proceedings against intermediaries who market or sell Greek-Cypriot property in the north. Turkish-Cypriot leaders reject that accusation, insisting the new prosecutions in the south are “purely political” and vowing to respond “with equal determination”.   Background: A Legal Counter-Strike   Last month, the Republic of Cyprus filed its first indictments against individuals—mostly foreign estate agents—suspected of advertising or brokering the sale of property owned by Greek Cypriots who were displaced in 1974. The move electrified public opinion on both sides of the island. ...

Turkey’s prominent opposition leader Özgür Özel has dismissed calls for the Republican People’s Party (CHP) to vacate its parliamentary and municipal seats, arguing that such a move would only accelerate President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s push for constitutional change. Instead, Özel promised to remain in the Grand National Assembly, continue the “relentless political struggle,” and, under clear conditions, participate in the government-backed “Terror-Free Turkey” commission, expected to be launched in the coming weeks. Speaking to T24 in a wide-ranging interview published on Wednesday, Özel said, “If we were to withdraw from parliament, Erdoğan would be the happiest person in the country. Within sixty days there would be by-elections, the ruling bloc could return with 400 deputies and rewrite the constitution at will.”  Özel stressed that CHP’s participation in the “Terror-Free Turkey” body hinges on one crucial guarantee: decisions must require a qualified majority rather than a si...

Eight months after rebel columns swept into the Syrian capital and brought an abrupt end to Bashar al-Assad's 54-year Baathist dynasty, a new army is quietly taking shape—and it is Ankara, not Damascus, that is doing most of the shaping. According to security sources who spoke to The Levant Files and were later confirmed by Syrian defence officials, instructors from the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) began arriving in the capital in the last months. They now offer crash courses at several former regime bases on the outskirts of the Syrian cities such as Damascus, Homs, and Latakia, teaching everything from basic infantry tactics to NATO-style staff procedures. A parallel program for pilot cadets is already underway in Turkey, where dozens of Syrians, fresh from the rebel frontlines, have begun elementary flight training on Turkish trainer aircraft. "Every classroom now has Turkish-style discipline and procedures," one source told this site by phone from a converted lecture ha...

By Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias It isn’t hard to recall the “new spring” that blossomed between Ankara and Tel Aviv in recent years. Diplomatic sources reported that, in the last quarter of 2023, senior Turkish delegations were preparing to visit Israel, and a broad agenda—ranging from energy cooperation to tourism—was already on the table. Everything changed, however, with the bloody 7 October 2023 attack carried out by Hamas and Islamic Jihad—an operation the Palestinian groups dubbed “Al-Aqsa Flood.” The assault rocked regional balances, and Ankara’s harsh rhetoric against Israel’s heavy bombardment of Gaza once again brought the two countries to the brink.   From Spring Breeze to Black Storm   At first glance, the tension appears to be a reaction driven solely by Gaza, yet Israel’s security circles are focused on more than Hamas. Leaks indicate that back-to-back secret meetings in Jerusalem, chaired by Prime Minister Netanyahu, have been “Turkey-centric.” As one Israeli analyst t...

Dr. Nikolaos Stelya* *Stelya’nın yeni kitabı “Sintrofoi” Khalkedon Yayınları’ndan okuyucularıyla buluşuyor.  Geçtiğimiz yıllarda Ankara ile Tel Aviv arasında esen “yeni bahar” rüzgârını hatırlamak zor değil. Diplomatik kaynaklar, 2023’ün son çeyreğinde üst düzey Türk heyetlerinin İsrail ziyaretine hazırlandığını, hatta enerji iş birliğinden turizme uzanan geniş bir ajandanın masada olduğunu ifade ediyordu. Ne var ki 7 Ekim 2023’te Hamas ve İslami Cihad’ın düzenlediği kanlı saldırı – Filistinli grupların “Aksa Tufanı” adını verdiği operasyon – bölgesel dengeleri kökten sarstı. Ankara’nın Gazze’deki ağır bombardımana karşı sert söylemi iki ülkeyi yeniden kopma noktasına getirdi.   Bahar Havasından Kara Fırtınaya   Gerginlik ilk bakışta Gazze kaynaklı bir refleks gibi görünebilir; ancak İsrail güvenlik çevrelerinin dikkati sadece Hamas dosyasında kilitli değil. Kudüs’te Başbakan Netanyahu başkanlığında art arda yapılan gizli toplantıların “Türkiye odaklı” gerçekleştiği haber...

The Middle East is again at a crossroads after two turbulent years that saw Gaza in flames, Hizballah routed, the Assad regime collapse, and a 12-day U.S.–Israeli air campaign batter Iran. What happens next, diplomats say, will depend less on battlefield momentum than on whether Tehran, Jerusalem, and Washington can turn hard-won military gains into lasting political settlements. Paul Salem, writing in his analysis “ Inflection Point or Continuing Spiral in the Middle East? ”, argues that the region now faces “a once-in-a-generation opening to recast security on more stable, state-centric lines.”  Yet he warns that the same window could slam shut if leaders pursue maximalist goals or revert to short-term tactics. His essay, published by the Middle East Institute, sketches two diverging futures: one in which diplomacy cools the front lines from Gaza to the Gulf, and another in which the wars of the past 24 months simply morph into the wars of the next 24. Iran Counts Its Losses, but...

Hopes for a breakthrough between the Damascus government and the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) have again been dashed, with officials on both sides acknowledging that months of contact have yielded no formal negotiations and no tangible progress. Speaking to Rudaw Media Network on July 27, Ilham Ahmed—the co-chair of the AANES Foreign Relations Department—said the current back-and-forth is “a type of understanding to address the Syrian crisis,” rather than a structured peace process. Her remarks underscore the widening gap over how (or whether) to implement the 10 March framework that was supposed to chart a path toward power-sharing and military integration. Mediated but Not Negotiated Ahmed confirmed that mediators from the United States, France, and, indirectly, the United Kingdom are overseeing the contacts. While France has long played a facilitator role, Washington’s open participation is a first. Despite that high-level involvement, she stressed, “Onl...

Bir zamanlar İsrail tarafından uzak bir Yunan-Türk sorunu olarak görülen Kuzey Kıbrıs, şimdilerde güvenlik uzmanlarının deyişiyle "Akdeniz’in Vahşi Batısı"na dönüşmüş durumda. İsrailli uzmanlara göre bu bölge, Türk SİHA'ları, balistik füzeler ve terör finansörlerinin neredeyse hiçbir engelle karşılaşmadan faaliyet gösterdiği dokunulmaz bir alan haline geldi. Analist Shay Gal, bu gidişatın kontrol altına alınmaması halinde Kuzey Kıbrıs’ın yakın gelecekte İsrail’in denizdeki gaz sahaları, ticaret rotaları ve hatta büyük şehirleri için doğrudan bir tehdit oluşturacağı uyarısında bulunuyor. Uluslararası siyaset ve kriz yönetimi uzmanı Shay Gal, 29 Temmuz’da Israel Hayom gazetesinde yayımlanan “ Kuzey Kıbrıs Aynı Zamanda Bir İsrail Sorunu ” başlıklı makalesinde çarpıcı bir öneri sunuyor. Gal, İsrail'in Yunanistan ve Kıbrıs Cumhuriyeti ile ortak hareket etmesi gerektiğini savunuyor. Ona göre, Türkiye kontrolündeki kuzeyden gelebilecek tehditler kritik bir eşiği aşarsa, ...

Northern Cyprus—long treated in Jerusalem as a distant Greek-Turkish dispute—has rapidly morphed into what security specialists call "the Mediterranean's Wild West," a zone where Turkish armed drones, ballistic missiles, and terrorist financiers can operate with near-total impunity. Israeli analyst Shay Gal contends that if left unchecked, the enclave could soon imperil Israel's offshore gas fields, commercial sea-lanes, and even its major cities. In a detailed essay published 29 July in the Israeli Hayom " Northern Cyprus Is Also an Israeli Problem ," Shay Gal—an expert in international politics, crisis management and strategic communication—argues that Jerusalem must coordinate with Athens and Nicosia on a contingency plan to "liberate the island's north" should threats emanating from the Turkish-occupied sector reach a critical threshold. A Forward Turkish Base on EU Soil   Turkey's 1974 invasion carved Cyprus in two, but its military fo...

Turkey is accelerating a diplomatic charm-offensive toward Libya’s eastern powerbrokers in the hope of clinching nationwide ratification of a 2019 maritime boundary agreement that redraws the map of the Eastern Mediterranean in Ankara’s favor. According to a news analysis by Al-Monitor’s Ezgi Akin, Ankara now sees the House of Representatives in Benghazi as “a valuable strategic asset” after years of hostility. It is pressing the chamber to endorse the Turkey-Tripoli accord it once rejected.   The shift was underscored last week when Saddam Haftar — ground-forces commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA) and son of eastern strongman Khalifa Haftar — made his second trip to Turkey in four months and met Defense Minister Yaşar Güler at an Istanbul defense fair. The visit came only weeks after Benghazi lawmakers formed a committee to study the accord.   “I still remember when the Turkish authorities used to call Haftar a ‘war criminal,’” Claudia Gazzini of the International Cr...

A single Iranian combat drone, loitering over Iraq’s Kurdistan Region on 19 July, fired a missile into a pickup truck near the village of Shiwa Gwezan, Panjwin district. The blast killed Simko Kobani, a commander in the East Kurdistan Defense Units (YRK, the military wing of PJAK). It wounded another fighter It was the first such Iranian strike around Sulaymaniyah in months and immediately set Kurdish social media alight, with some outlets initially mis-tagging the victim as a PKK member before human-rights monitors confirmed the YRK identity The explosion sparked brush fires that charred surrounding orchards and vineyards, a bitter reminder to locals of how quickly a distant conflict can scorch Kurdish soil. Gunfire on the border   Just forty-eight hours later, gunfire crackled inside Iran. A PJAK unit ambushed an Iranian border-guard position near Baneh, killing one soldier. In the following days, the insurgent group claimed multiple raids on security outposts in Iran’s west, lea...

A chorus of respected Turkish foreign-policy voices is urging President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government to shelve talk of another cross-border operation in Syria and instead design an orderly exit strategy for the troops it already fields there. The warning is led by former Ambassador to Washington and Tel Aviv Namık Tan, who wrote on T24 that Ankara's agenda should be "working out how to leave Syria, not planning another entry." Tan's intervention comes after a sudden spike in official rhetoric. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and later Erdoğan himself both threatened an unspecified military response to prevent Syria's "partition". At the same time, the Defence Ministry claimed it had even received an invitation from Damascus to intervene. AK Party spokesman Ömer Çelik amplified the message, fuelling speculation that Ankara could soon launch its fourth large-scale incursion since 2016. Yet veteran diplomat Tan argues that Turkey is already over-exte...

Mediterranean nations are once again on edge as hundreds of fires tear across Albania, Greece, and Turkey, testing emergency services and inflaming political disputes over disaster preparedness. During the past twenty-four hours, flames have advanced on villages, tourist resorts, and even a major Turkish city, while scorching temperatures and high winds complicate containment efforts. Albania: Six Villages Emptied, State on “Heightened Alert” Southern Albania woke to a skyline veiled in smoke after a fast-moving blaze near Delvina forced the overnight evacuation of roughly 2,000 residents. Authorities confirm that three people were treated for burns or smoke inhalation; a church, ten homes, and swaths of farmland now lie in ashes. By Saturday morning, the Interior Ministry counted more than 26 active fires across the country, covering “tens of thousands of acres,” and ordered the military to reinforce exhausted municipal crews. Prime Minister Edi Rama’s government has declared a state ...

France is preparing to convene a high-stakes round of Syria peace talks that could finally weave the country’s Kurdish-led Autonomous Administration—militarily represented by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—into the fabric of a future Syrian state. Paris’ initiative highlights a growing international consensus that no durable settlement in Syria is possible without the Kurds at the table. The Road to Paris The upcoming meeting builds on the March 10 agreement signed by Syria’s interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, and SDF commander Mazloum Abdi. That deal outlined a pathway for both political and military integration of Kurdish institutions into Damascus-run structures. Still, implementation has stalled amid disputes over constitutional language and the future status of Kurdish self-administration. An earlier session scheduled for late July was postponed when Damascus demanded the SDF disarm—an idea Kurdish leaders flatly rejected. Diplomatic Cast and Stakes French foreign minister Je...

Armenia has turned down a U.S. proposal to lease and presumably operate a key roadway through the country’s southern Syunik Province, senior officials confirmed on Friday. The route, which would connect mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan, has been one of the most sensitive issues in continuing Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks. Armenian legislators say the American idea promised new security guarantees and international investment but ultimately clashed with constitutional limits on ceding control over territory. “Any arrangement that dilutes the republic’s jurisdiction is a red line,” a government source told reporters. According to OC Media , “Armenia says it rejected US lease over road in Syunik over sovereignty concerns,” ruling Civil Contract MP Arman Yeghoyan revealed that Washington recently floated a formal lease option. Yeghoyan, who chairs parliament’s European Integration Committee, told Factor TV that the government perceived “a danger of conceding sovereignty.” ...

At least eight people were killed and 13 others wounded on Saturday when armed assailants opened fire inside the main courthouse in Zahedan, the capital of Iran’s volatile Sistan-Baluchistan province, state media reported. According to Mizan Online, the news agency of Iran’s judiciary, “unknown gunmen attacked the judicial complex in Zahedan shortly after 10:30 a.m. local time, spraying automatic rifle fire at court employees and civilians before security forces responded.” Three attackers were shot dead during an exchange of fire that lasted nearly twenty minutes, the agency added. The dead include five civilians—two women, a court clerk and two people waiting for hearings—and three of the assailants. Thirteen other victims, among them a teenage boy and two police officers, were transferred to Khatam-ol-Anbia Hospital, where several remain in critical condition. Video posted by local journalists showed shattered glass, overturned benches, and blood-stained court files strewn across th...

The self-declared Islamic State is actively laying the groundwork for its return in both Syria and Iraq, swapping the dream of an open caliphate for a grinding, low-level insurgency meant to exhaust security forces and undercut fragile governments. Events of the past two weeks—most starkly the suicide bombing of Damascus’s Mar Elias Greek Orthodox Church—show that the group is not simply surviving in desert hideouts; it is probing, recruiting, and striking with renewed purpose. Damascus Bombing Marks a New Phase   On 22 June, an ISIS cell detonated explosives inside the Mar Elias church, killing twenty-six worshippers and wounding more than fifty. Follow-up raids around the capital uncovered suicide vests, a vehicle-borne bomb, and a network that moved fighters from the al-Hol detention camp into the Syrian desert. Although overall attack numbers in Syria have fallen during the past year, the capital’s first suicide blast since the fall of the Assad regime confirms that ISIS retain...