The Levant Files

Rather than marching toward protracted war or bluffing from weakness, the Islamic Republic is executing a calibrated strategy of 'escalation dominance' designed to make the cost of conflict prohibitive while keeping negotiation channels alive. As the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group takes position in the Persian Gulf and President Donald Trump threatens "speed and violence" against the Islamic Republic, Iran's military leadership has issued a stark warning that reveals less about a regime bent on war than one desperately trying to avoid one—while ensuring any fight would be catastrophic for its adversaries. Major General Amir Hatami, Commander-in-Chief of Iran's Army, declared Saturday that "if the enemy makes a mistake, without a doubt it will endanger its own security, the security of the region, and the security of the Zionist regime." The statement, delivered through official IRNA channels, came as Tehran announced the integration of 1,00...

According to detailed announcements by senior Kurdish officials published by the Hawar News Agency (ANHA), a new agreement between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Syria’s Interim Government represents a fundamental dismantling of the region’s de facto autonomous administration in the core territories of Jazira and Kobani, yet potentially secures a narrow pathway to localized self-governance in formerly occupied Kurdish regions—a complex bargain that suggests Kurds traded broad federal autonomy for the restoration of specific ethnic homelands. In a series of statements that include remarks from negotiation committee member Fawza Youssef and Ilham Ahmed, Co-Chair of the Department of External Relations of the Democratic Autonomous Administration, the agreement’s provisions reveal a systematic transfer of military, security, and administrative authority to Damascus in the resource-rich eastern regions, while holding out the possibility of self-rule in the northwestern cantons lost ...

Syria's government has reached a comprehensive agreement with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to gradually integrate the militia into state structures, a move the BBC describes as the most significant step toward national reunification since the fall of the Assad regime. According to the BBC, the deal comes after weeks of intense clashes during which Syrian troops reclaimed large swathes of northeastern territory that had been under SDF control for more than a decade. The agreement mirrors a fragile 14-point ceasefire reached earlier in January following major territorial losses for the Kurdish-led forces, though sporadic fighting had continued despite that truce, the BBC reports. The SDF announced via its press center, as reported by ANF, that the agreement includes the formation of a military division consisting of three brigades made of its members, alongside provisions for SDF forces to withdraw from points of contact with government troops. ANF reports that the ...

As Iran's bloody crackdown on the national uprising continues to claim civilian lives across the country, a new human tragedy has emerged with the killing of a physician shot by security forces stationed inside a mosque compound, according to Iran International. Dr. Zahra Fazili, a 38-year-old medical doctor, was fatally wounded on the evening of January 8 when forces opened fire from within a religious facility in the southern port city of Bushehr, the London-based broadcaster reported, citing video evidence submitted to its newsroom. Security personnel allegedly targeted the physician during intensified suppression operations that have seen thousands killed since nationwide protests erupted in late December. Her memorial service was conducted under heavy security pressure, Iran International reported, as authorities attempt to control public mourning rituals that might catalyze further demonstrations against the Islamic Republic's violent response to the economic crisis-trigg...

Iran's football community has emerged as a flashpoint of political tension amid a brutal state crackdown, with former captain Mehdi Mahdavikia accusing the national team of abandoning victims while unconfirmed reports suggest players face punishment for symbolic protests. The crisis erupted following nationwide demonstrations that began December 28, 2025, triggered by economic collapse. Human rights organizations estimate between 6,000 and 30,000 civilians were killed during systematic massacres on January 8–9, 2026—figures that sharply contrast with the government's claim of 3,117 deaths. An unprecedented internet blackout initiated on January 8 has reduced connectivity to 1% of normal levels, impeding independent verification of casualties and stifling domestic communication. Within this climate, individual players have mounted quiet acts of defiance. National team captain Mehdi Taremi has refused to celebrate goals since January 19, stating that "the people" were s...

  Hizbullah, the Shia militia that has dominated Lebanon for four decades, is experiencing an unprecedented crisis that has transformed Iran's most formidable foreign proxy into a shadow of its former self. The organization's decline became undeniable in September 2024 when rescue workers pulled Hassan Nasrallah's body from beneath 90 feet of rubble in Beirut following Israeli air strikes. His death—whether from blunt force or suffocation in his bunker—exposed a fragility that has only deepened as Iran itself convulses with internal unrest. Financial Lifelines Severed According to the Economist, Hizbullah's cash sources have collapsed dramatically. The abduction of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro severed a lucrative revenue stream from organized crime and narcotics. Under Maduro, Caracas had become a hub for illicit Iranian oil exports, Colombian cocaine transit, and money-laundering—all personally guaranteed by the strongman through a 2022 Iran-Venezuela cooperation agr...

Behind chain-link fences in northeast Syria, a decade-long stalemate is unraveling. Al-Hol detention camp, holding approximately 35,000 people including foreign jihadists and their families, has descended into chaos as Kurdish guards abandoned their posts and fighters loyal to Syria's interim president Ahmed al-Sharaa took control. According to the Economist, the camp, located near the Iraqi border, has housed foreign Muslims who joined Islamic State (IS) during Syria's civil war since 2018. Divided into two sections—one for Syrians and Iraqis, another "annexe" for foreign jihadists—al-Hol represents a problem Western governments have refused to address for nearly seven years. Legal Limbo Turns to Security Crisis The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) lacked authority to prosecute detainees, while most Western nations ignored American pressure to repatriate their citizens. That precarious equilibrium shattered last week when government forces retook territory ...

As the latest wave of Iran’s National Uprising unfolded, the country once again lost some of its brightest and most determined young citizens. Among them was 24-year-old fitness trainer Venus Negahban, known as “Saba,” who was shot dead by Islamic Republic security forces on Friday night, January 9, in Tehran. According to reports obtained by Iran International, Negahban was fatally struck by two live bullets—one to the throat and another to the abdomen—during clashes on Andarzgoo Street. The young trainer, remembered for her energy and dedication, worked in several gyms across northern Tehran and was her parents’ only child. Her death has sparked an outpouring of grief and anger online, symbolizing the heavy toll Iran’s youth continue to bear in their struggle for freedom and dignity.  Video: Iran International  Photo: Iran International, enhanced by Manus AI

The atmosphere in Iran has reached a state of “unstable deterrence”, with the nation balancing on a knife’s edge between a devastating regional war and an urgent diplomatic push to de-escalate tensions, according to IRNA. While, as stressed by IRNA and Razgosha, Iranian military officials insist that their “fingers are on the trigger,” secret backchannel communications suggest that both Tehran and Washington are seeking a “brake” to prevent a full-scale conflagration. Military Escalation and the “Red Alert” Razgosha reports that the military environment in the Persian Gulf is now at its highest tension level in years, with the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group positioned east of the Strait of Hormuz and the USS Truman approaching from the Red Sea. According to Neshan-e Tejarat, Iranian commanders have responded defiantly, declaring a “red alert” and warning that any violation of Iranian territory would mark the start of an “all-out war.” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has publicly stat...

Ankara is actively working to forestall a potential US military strike against Iran, according to a report by veteran journalist Murat Yetkin in Yetkin Report on January 29. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has held multiple meetings with US Ambassador Tom Barrack in recent days, discussing not only Syria and Gaza but also the escalating Iran crisis, as President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan pushes for direct dialogue between Washington and Tehran. Erdoğan reportedly proposed a trilateral teleconference between US President Donald Trump, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and himself during his second phone call with Trump in a week, according to Hürriyet columnist Hande Fırat. This diplomatic initiative reflects Turkey's urgent interest in preventing conflict on its eastern border while managing ongoing tensions in Syria and a critical domestic counterterrorism process. Turkey is not alone in these efforts. The United Arab Emirates, a key architect of the Abraham Accords, has privat...

As Turkey enters the tenth year since the failed coup attempt of July 15, 2016, the relationship between civilian authority and the military has undergone one of the most profound transformations in the history of the Republic. According to political analyst Hakan Şahin (Serbestiyet, 13 December 2025), the 2024 “oath crisis” at the Turkish Military Academy graduation ceremony symbolized a new phase in this evolving dynamic — a moment when the military, once again, held a mirror to political power. From Founding Pillar to Controlled Institution For decades, the Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) played a defining role in shaping the Republic, not merely as a defense force but as a self-appointed guardian of modernity and secularism. From the 1920s to the early 2000s, this “foundational authority” justified periodic interventions in politics, backed by an epistemic framework that treated the army as both state architect and moral conscience. The failed coup in 2016, Şahin argues, marked an “epis...

Important note: Please note that the Arabic service of TLf is currently in a beta phase. We have launched this initiative with the support of our followers, volunteers, and AI technology. Please keep in mind that during this first phase, the Arabic text may contain slight phrasing or translation errors. We aim to launch a fully professional Arabic service in the near future. يرجى العلم أن الخدمة العربية لـ TLf لا تزال في مرحلة تجريبية (Beta). لقد أطلقنا هذه الخدمة بدعم من متابعينا والمتطوعين وباستخدام تقنيات الذكاء الاصطناعي. يرجى أخذ العلم أنه في هذه المرحلة الأولى قد تحتوي النصوص العربية على بعض الأخطاء البسيطة في الصياغة أو الترجمة. نهدف في المستقبل القريب إلى إطلاق خدمة عربية احترافية بالكامل. بينما تعصف الاحتجاجات العنيفة وعدم الاستقرار الاقتصادي بالجمهورية الإسلامية في إيران، تستعد تركيا بشكل حثيث للتعامل مع فراغ السلطة المحتمل لدى جارتها. وفي ظل استمرار خيم شبح الحرب الأهلية السورية على المشهد السياسي التركي، تحشد أنقرة استراتيجية مزدوجة تتمثل في: تحصين حدودها المادية لمنع نزوح ...

A fragile 15-day ceasefire in northern Syria appeared to be collapsing on Wednesday as government forces tightened their siege on the Kurdish stronghold of Kobani, plunging the city into a humanitarian crisis that local officials warn is approaching "Gaza-like" conditions. Despite the truce extension announced on January 24, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reported over 20 distinct ceasefire violations by Syrian government and Turkish-backed militias in the last 24 hours alone. The heaviest fighting has concentrated around the villages of Kharab Ashk and al-Jalabiya, southeast of the city, where Damascus-aligned troops launched coordinated assaults supported by Turkish-manufactured Bayraktar drones. The encirclement has severed all lifelines to Kobani, a city of approximately 400,000 people now hosting over 100,000 displaced civilians. Essential services, including the main electricity grid and water pumping stations, have been cut off for days, leaving residents freezing ...

By Kuti Shoham Since the outbreak of the war in Gaza, Israel has been engaged in a deep, and often highly emotional, debate over who should govern the Strip once the fighting ends. The government has voiced strong opposition to any role for Qatar and Turkey in an international mechanism that would assume responsibility for Gaza, arguing that both countries are associated with Hamas, a terrorist organization, and therefore unfit to be partners in shaping Gaza's future. Behind this resistance, however, lies a strategic mistake. Israel is clinging to an abstract moral consideration instead of managing concrete diplomatic and security interests. The key question is not who is more ideologically "right," but what will better serve Israel's security and long-term future. Israel's supreme interest is not to punish, ostracize or isolate, but to extricate itself from civilian, economic and security responsibility for two million Gazans without allowing Hamas to reestablish...

As violent protests and economic instability rock the Islamic Republic of Iran, Turkey is aggressively preparing for the potential vacuum of power next door. With the spectre of the Syrian civil war still looming large over Turkish politics, Ankara is mobilizing a dual strategy: fortifying its physical borders against a mass exodus and reshaping regional alliances to secure its geopolitical standing. According to exclusive reporting, Turkey is planning to establish a buffer zone on the Iranian side of the border if a worst-case scenario unfolds and the government in Tehran collapses, Middle East Eye understands. Top Foreign Ministry officials recently briefed lawmakers in a closed-door parliament session, indicating that Ankara’s primary objective is to contain any potential refugee wave within Iranian territory rather than allowing it to cross into Turkey. The urgency of these preparations stems from the escalating violence in Iran. Turkish officials informed lawmakers that approximat...

Turkey's Kurdish peace process is experiencing a serious rupture and crisis of confidence, with the government failing to take concrete steps beyond parliamentary commission meetings, according to Tuncer Bakırhan, co-chair of the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM). In an interview with Yeni Yaşam Newspaper on Wednesday, Bakırhan criticized Ankara for prioritizing its Syria policy over domestic reconciliation efforts, stating that the government has "devoted all its energy to North and East Syria" while neglecting practical initiatives that would address societal demands for Kurdish resolution. Syria Conflict Deepens Mistrust Bakırhan said the process was "sabotaged by the Aleppo attack," referencing recent Turkish military operations in northern Syria that have targeted Kurdish-held areas. The DEM Party leader warned that the government's Syria policy has engaged in "practices that will harm both regional peace and the solution process in T...

Washington has moved beyond deterrence to a strategy explicitly designed to "collapse Iran's economy," as the Trump administration moves to leverage Tehran's unprecedented internal weakness. With the Iranian rial already in freefall and a lethal crackdown claiming thousands of lives, the White House is coordinating a 40-nation coalition to enforce a suffocating financial blockade, betting that total economic asphyxiation will force the regime's capitulation or collapse. This intensification of "maximum pressure" exploits the very vulnerability that sparked the current uprising. The crisis began on December 28 not with political slogans, but with the implosion of the national currency to 1.4 million rials per dollar, triggering historic strikes in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed that US policy is now calibrated to accelerate this financial disintegration, effectively weaponizing the economic despair driving millions o...

Turkish journalist Sedef Kabaş has been detained after declaring on social media that "as of March 19, the country is being ruled by a 'civilian coup'." Prosecutors questioned Kabaş regarding her commentary on the imprisonment of a leading political figure and alleged government interference in the main opposition party, leading to formal charges of "insulting the President." Kabaş was taken into custody yesterday evening as part of an investigation conducted by the Istanbul Anatolian Chief Public Prosecutor's Office. Authorities cited posts made from her X account as the basis for charges including "insulting the President" and "incitement to commit a crime." Following her transfer to the courthouse today, details regarding Kabaş's testimony have emerged. According to reports from halktv.com.tr, the interrogation centered on a specific post dated September 9, 2025, in which she wrote: "Is there anyone who still thinks only s...

In an exclusive interview broadcast on Sterk TV, senior Kurdish commander Murat Karayılan warned of a coordinated and far-reaching plan behind the recent wave of attacks against Kurdish-controlled regions in northeastern Syria, particularly Rojava. Karayılan labeled the military offensives launched on January 6 — beginning in Aleppo and expanding across Kurdish-led areas — as "part of a comprehensive conspiracy" aimed at excluding Kurds from the new regional order. Speaking to the Fırat News Agency (ANF), Karayılan stated, “This plan has been approved by regional powers such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and even Jordan, alongside international actors like the United States, Britain, Germany, and France. In this new regional design, there is no place for the Kurds.” He compared the current scenario to the post-World War I Sykes-Picot Agreement and the tragic fate of the short-lived Kurdish Republic of Mahabad following World War II, insisting that the current offensive seek...

A catastrophic explosion at the "Violanta" biscuit factory in Trikala, central Greece, early Monday morning has left five women dead and sparked national outrage, raising urgent questions about workplace safety, regulatory oversight, and the human cost of unchecked industrial growth. At around 4 a.m. of Monday's morning, a massive explosion ripped through the factory, which produces biscuits and snacks for both domestic and international markets. The blast was so powerful that it was heard up to 15 kilometers away, leaving behind a scene of devastation: the factory building was almost entirely destroyed, and debris was scattered over a wide area. The five victims, all women working the night shift, were found inside the ruins. Seven others, including a firefighter, were injured but later released from hospital after treatment. The women, mothers from nearby villages, were working overnight to support their families. Their deaths have plunged the local community into mourn...