The Levant Files

Important note: Please note that the Arabic service of TLf is currently in a beta phase. We have launched this initiative with the support of our followers, volunteers, and AI technology. Please keep in mind that during this first phase, the Arabic text may contain slight phrasing or translation errors. We aim to launch a fully professional Arabic service in the near future. يرجى العلم أن الخدمة العربية لـ TLf لا تزال في مرحلة تجريبية (Beta). لقد أطلقنا هذه الخدمة بدعم من متابعينا والمتطوعين وباستخدام تقنيات الذكاء الاصطناعي. يرجى أخذ العلم أنه في هذه المرحلة الأولى قد تحتوي النصوص العربية على بعض الأخطاء البسيطة في الصياغة أو الترجمة. نهدف في المستقبل القريب إلى إطلاق خدمة عربية احترافية بالكامل.   يعيد المشهد العالمي المتغير رسم الحسابات الأمنية لحلفاء الولايات المتحدة وخصومها على حد سواء، وقلة من الدول تشعر بهذه الهزات بالحدة التي تشعر بها إسرائيل. فبعد ثلاثة عقود شكّلت فيها المؤسسات التي تقودها الولايات المتحدة، والتجارة المتوسعة، والمعايير الليبرالية توقعات الاستقرار؛ يقو...

A shifting global landscape is redrawing security calculations for U.S. allies and adversaries alike, and few states feel the tremors as sharply as Israel . After three decades in which American-led institutions, expanding trade, and liberal norms shaped expectations of stability, analysts say the international system is increasingly defined by nationalism, populism, and revisionism—conditions that raise the odds of high-intensity interstate conflict while simultaneously weakening the reliability of Washington’s protective umbrella. In a recent assessment, Benny Miller argues that the crumbling of the liberal international order is creating a dual challenge for Israel—worsening some threats while potentially easing others—by altering both the capabilities Israel can rely on and the threat environment it faces (Benny Miller, INSS Insight No. 2076, “The New World Order: Implications for Israel,” Dec. 30, 2025). The erosion of post–Cold War assumptions has been accelerated by the return ...

Turkey has approved new sentencing and probation changes to ease prison overcrowding, but the scale of expected releases is reviving a familiar question: is the state reducing crime, or simply cycling people in and out of packed facilities? Former lawmaker Mustafa Yeneroğlu argues the answer is not “new bunks” or periodic, constitution-skirting amnesties, but rebuilding legal predictability, economic fairness and the social state. He made the case in his Serbestiyet essay, dated Dec. 30. The Justice Ministry says the 11th Judicial Package, now in force after publication in the Official Gazette, could release more than 50,000 inmates in an initial phase. Technical tweaks to supervised release and conditional parole could lift that figure toward 120,000 over the medium term. The move recalls earlier broad execution arrangements that freed tens of thousands in 2020 and 2023. Yet repeated packages have not delivered lasting relief. Since 2010, Turkey’s overall population has risen by about...

As 2025 closes, the US/Israel–Iran confrontation is no longer a low-grade shadow struggle managed mainly through diplomacy and proxy conflicts ; it is an openly articulated deterrence contest in which leaders have publicly tied credibility to “red lines” and rapid retaliation. President Trump has stated that if Iran rebuilds its nuclear capabilities or continues rebuilding missile capacity , the response could be immediate and more severe—language that reduces room for quiet de-escalation once a new incident occurs.  At the same time, Iran has replied with warnings of harsh consequences for any renewed attacks, reinforcing a mutual-threat environment where misperception and political signaling can substitute for verifiable facts.  Against that backdrop, the key analytical point for 2026 is not whether a “full war” is the default outcome; it is that the probability that a limited clash escalates into a broader, sustained conflict is meaningfully elevated because the stabili...

Please note that the Persian service of TLf is currently in a beta phase. We have launched this initiative with the support of our followers, volunteers, and AI technology. Please keep in mind that during this first phase, the Persian text may contain slight phrasing or translation errors. We aim to launch a fully professional Persian service in the near future. لطفاً توجه داشته باشید که بخش فارسی TLf در حال حاضر در مرحله بتا قرار دارد. ما این ابتکار را با همراهی دنبال‌کنندگان، داوطلبان و با کمک فناوری هوش مصنوعی راه‌اندازی کرده‌ایم. لطفاً در نظر داشته باشید که در این مرحله نخست، متن فارسی ممکن است حاوی برخی ناهماهنگی‌ها در نگارش یا خطاهای جزئی در ترجمه باشد. هدف ما این است که در آینده نزدیک، یک بخش فارسی کاملاً حرفه‌ای راه‌اندازی کنیم. طی شبانه‌روز گذشته، موج جدید اعتراضات ایران از تظاهرات اقتصادیِ بازارمحور فراتر رفت و به چالشی گسترده‌تر و چندجانبه تبدیل شد؛ به طوری که دانشجویان نیز به بازاریان و کسبه پیوستند و مقامات رسمی ضمن تأیید وجود گلایه‌های «مشروع»، از ایجاد مکانیسمی برای گفتگ...

Over the past day, Iran’s latest protest wave expanded from market-centered economic demonstrations into a broader, multi‑front challenge—with university students joining bazaar merchants and shopkeepers, and officials publicly acknowledging “legitimate” grievances while signaling a dialogue mechanism.  Key Developments (last 24 hours) Campus participation widened: Semi-official outlets reported hundreds of students protesting at multiple universities, including several in Tehran, with additional activity reported in other cities.  Government shifted tone to managed de-escalation: President Masoud Pezeshkian said he instructed the interior minister to listen to protesters’ “legitimate demands” and officials discussed setting up a dialogue mechanism.  Economic stress remained the ignition source: Reporting emphasized the rial’s sharp weakening, high inflation, and uncertainty for traders—conditions that have made normal commerce difficult and encouraged shop closures/strik...

We’re thrilled to announce the launch of our official Mastodon account: @thelevantfiles@thelevantfiles.social For years, The Levant Files has been your trusted independent source for in-depth reporting, analysis, and on-the-ground coverage of politics, conflict, culture, and human stories across the Levant and wider Middle East. As traditional platforms become increasingly unpredictable, we’re joining the fediverse to connect directly with our readers in a space that values privacy, transparency, and community ownership. On Mastodon, you’ll get: - Real-time updates from our journalists in Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Iraq, and beyond   - Exclusive threads and long-form dispatches free from algorithmic suppression   - Direct interaction – ask questions, share tips, and join the conversation   - No ads, no corporate overlords, just journalism Follow us now at @thelevantfiles@thelevantfiles.social and boost this post to help more people find independent coverage of one of the ...

  Η επίσημη αναγνώριση της Σομαλιλάνδης από το Ισραήλ στις 26 Δεκεμβρίου 2025 —που παρουσιάστηκε από το Ισραήλ ως κίνηση «στο πνεύμα των Συμφωνιών του Αβραάμ» και συνοδεύτηκε από σχέδια διεύρυνσης της συνεργασίας— αναζωπύρωσε το ενδιαφέρον για το πώς η Ιερουσαλήμ ενδέχεται να χρησιμοποιεί επιλεκτικές αναγνωρίσεις κρατικών/πολιτικών οντοτήτων ώστε να διαμορφώνει μια νέα «γεωμετρία ασφάλειας» γύρω από τον διάδρομο Ερυθρά Θάλασσα – Κόλπος του Άντεν. Στην μια πρώτη ανάγνωση, η Σομαλιλάνδη προσφέρει ένα διπλωματικό και πιθανώς επιχειρησιακό «σημείο θέασης» απέναντι από την Υεμένη, κοντά στο στρατηγικό στενό Μπαμπ αλ‑Μαντέμπ, όπου οι επιθέσεις των Χούθι έχουν προκαλέσει διαταραχές στη ναυτιλία εδώ και δύο χρόνια. Μέσα σε αυτό το πλαίσιο, ενισχύθηκαν οι συζητήσεις για το αν το Ισραήλ θα μπορούσε κάποτε να προχωρήσει ακόμη περισσότερο: είτε υποστηρίζοντας μια διχοτόμηση της Υεμένης, είτε ακόμη και αναγνωρίζοντας το Νότιο Μεταβατικό Συμβούλιο (STC) ως ξεχωριστή κυβέρνηση. Δεν υπάρχει δημόσι...

  Important note: Please note that the Arabic service of TLf is currently in a beta phase. We have launched this initiative with the support of our followers, volunteers, and AI technology. Please keep in mind that during this first phase, the Arabic text may contain slight phrasing or translation errors. We aim to launch a fully professional Arabic service in the near future. يرجى العلم أن الخدمة العربية لـ TLf لا تزال في مرحلة تجريبية (Beta). لقد أطلقنا هذه الخدمة بدعم من متابعينا والمتطوعين وباستخدام تقنيات الذكاء الاصطناعي. يرجى أخذ العلم أنه في هذه المرحلة الأولى قد تحتوي النصوص العربية على بعض الأخطاء البسيطة في الصياغة أو الترجمة. نهدف في المستقبل القريب إلى إطلاق خدمة عربية احترافية بالكامل.  إن اعتراف إسرائيل الرسمي بـ "أرض الصومال" (صوماليلاند) في 26 ديسمبر 2025 — والذي صاغته إسرائيل كخطوة "بروح الاتفاقيات الإبراهيمية" وأرفقته بخطط لتوسيع التعاون — قد جدد الاهتمام بكيفية استخدام القدس للاعتراف الانتقائي من أجل إعادة تشكيل الهندسة الأمنية حول ممر البحر الأح...

Somalia presents one of the most haunting paradoxes in modern political history. As explored in this Deep Dive, few nations possess such a theoretically strong foundation for unity: a universal language, a shared religion in Sunni Islam, and a deep-seated pastoral heritage where the camel defines both value and law. Yet, this cultural homogeneity has failed to translate into political stability. Instead, the modern history of Somalia traces a tragic arc from the fervent "Pan-Somali" nationalism of the 1960s to the total disintegration of the state in 1991. This episode dissects the roots of this fracture, beginning with the "colonial convenience" that carved the Somali people into British, Italian, and French territories. We examine how the 1960 unification was doomed by administrative incompatibility and the dominance of the Italian-influenced South over the British-influenced North. The narrative moves through the authoritarian era of Siad Barre, whose contradicto...

Israel’s formal recognition of Somaliland on 26 December 2025—framed by Israel as a move “in the spirit of the Abraham Accords” and accompanied by plans to expand cooperation—has renewed attention on how Jerusalem may use selective recognition to shape security geometry around the Red Sea–Gulf of Aden corridor.  At a minimum, Somaliland offers a diplomatic and potentially operational vantage point across from Yemen, near the Bab al‑Mandeb choke point where Houthi attacks have disrupted shipping for two years.  In that context, discussion has grown around whether Israel might ever go further—by backing Yemen’s partition or even recognizing the Southern Transitional Council (STC) as a separate government. While there is no public record of Israel formally recognizing the STC as Yemen’s legitimate government, the idea is strategically intelligible and helps explain why Yemen’s southern question is increasingly linked—analytically and rhetorically—to Red Sea geopolitics after Soma...

Iran is facing a fast-moving wave of unrest driven by a dramatic plunge in the rial and surging prices. Shopkeepers and traders have shuttered parts of Tehran’s commercial districts, and protest gatherings have been reported in multiple cities. In some locations, security forces have used crowd-control measures, including tear gas. The government has responded by changing central bank leadership and urging officials to engage with protesters’ demands. 1) What is happening in Iran right now? Iran is seeing economic protests and strikes linked to a sharp currency slide and high inflation. Demonstrations have continued into a second day in Tehran and have been reported elsewhere. The unrest has concentrated around market areas, where merchants have closed shops in protest as exchange-rate volatility disrupts pricing and trade. 2) What sparked the protests? The immediate trigger is the rial’s plunge to record lows on the open market, intensifying fears of further price spikes for essential...

Tensions in the Middle East have reached a critical breaking point as President Donald Trump issued a stark ultimatum to Iran this week, threatening the Islamic Republic with nuclear consequences following Tehran’s declaration of "total war" on the West. The dramatic escalation comes just days after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian issued a chilling statement threatening Britain, Europe, the United States, and Israel with a "decisive response." Intelligence reports cited by Western officials indicate that Tehran has accelerated efforts to rebuild both its conventional military forces and its nuclear capabilities, signaling a departure from previous diplomatic stalemates. Speaking from his Mar-a-Lago estate alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Trump wasted no time in delivering a counter-threat. In a joint press conference that underscored the ironclad alliance between Washington and Jerusalem, Trump dismissed Iran’s attempts at secrecy, ...

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have announced the postponement of a high-stakes visit by their commander, Mazloum Abdi, to Damascus, citing "technical reasons" for the delay. The announcement comes as the year-end deadline for the landmark "March 10 agreement" rapidly approaches, an accord intended to integrate the SDF's military and civil structures into Syrian state institutions. The SDF Media Center stated on Monday, December 29, that the visit, which was scheduled for the same day with a negotiating delegation, would be rescheduled by mutual agreement. While the SDF insists the delay is purely logistical and does not signal a change in the course of communications or the goals of the talks, the move casts further uncertainty over the fate of the stalled agreement. The postponement highlights the deep divisions and lack of progress that have plagued the implementation of the March 10 agreement. Enab Baladi reports that despite repeated high-level meetings...

T ensions in the strategic Red Sea region have intensified following a sharp rebuke from Houthi officials in Yemen regarding reports of potential diplomatic ties between Israel and the breakaway region of Somaliland. The Houthi-led government in Sanaa has characterized these reports as evidence of a broader hostile agenda, warning that any Israeli foothold in the Horn of Africa would be viewed as a direct threat to regional security and the sovereignty of the Somali state. The conflicting narratives surrounding these diplomatic maneuvers were brought to light this week through opposing regional media outlets. According to a statement published by the Yemen News Agency (Saba), the Shura Council in Sanaa unequivocally condemned what it referred to as the "Zionist entity's" recognition of Somaliland, labeling the move a flagrant violation of international norms. Providing a counter-perspective, The Jerusalem Post reported that while the Houthi leadership has issued severe wa...